Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Watson, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.62
ERA rolling p504.60
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.63 3.56 4.60 5.63 6.56
FIP
2.09 3.06 4.15 5.23 6.20
K%
11.9% 14.4% 17.3% 20.1% 22.6%
BB%
4.5% 5.6% 6.9% 8.2% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
56
ERA4.62
33
BB%8.0%
61
K%18.2%
20
xwOBA allowed0.376
6 -67 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.7%
7 -50 vs proj
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
33
Whiff%21.4%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Curveball Stuff+101
30
Cutter Stuff+107
96
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+99
25
Slider Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Watson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.376 2026-07-06: 0.3792026-07-07: 0.3792026-07-08: 0.3792026-07-09: 0.3762026-07-10: 0.3762026-07-11: 0.3762026-07-12: 0.3762026-07-13: 0.3762026-07-14: 0.3762026-07-15: 0.3762026-07-16: 0.3762026-07-17: 0.376 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Watson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 24.6%Sweeper: 22.2%4-Seam Fastball: 21.2%Sinker: 16.2%Curveball: 14.2%Split-Finger: 1.5% FC25% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 25%ST 22%FF 21%SI 16%CU 14%FS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.1 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mphSinker: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mphSplit-Finger: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphFS89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.8% 146 107 limited sample
FB 22.3% 131 100 limited sample
SL 20.9% 123 102 limited sample
SI 17.2% 101 99 limited sample
CB 14.8% 87 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.12
K% Δ-0.001
Sample52.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.5----
Batters Faced138----
K%18.3%0.1% to 20.0%+/- 10.0%
BB%7.5%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%20.3%0.7% to 24.9%+/- 12.1%
HR/91.270.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2890.002 to 0.339+/- 0.168
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.500.88 to 6.44+/- 2.78
FIP3.570.38 to 6.19+/- 2.91
WHIP1.2630.182 to 1.502+/- 0.660
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%