Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Watson, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace4.96
ERA rolling p504.73
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.74 3.68 4.73 5.79 6.73
FIP
2.14 3.13 4.23 5.33 6.32
K%
11.4% 14.3% 17.5% 20.8% 23.7%
BB%
4.2% 5.5% 7.0% 8.4% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
55
Barrel allowed14.5%
2 -53 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed43.6%
25
K%19.3%
27
Whiff%21.5%
36
xwOBA allowed0.403
2 -70 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Watson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3972026-05-19: 0.3862026-05-21: 0.3862026-05-23: 0.3862026-05-24: 0.3792026-05-25: 0.3852026-05-26: 0.3852026-05-28: 0.3912026-05-29: 0.3912026-05-30: 0.4032026-05-31: 0.4032026-06-01: 0.403 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Watson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 22.6%Cutter: 22.4%Sweeper: 20.6%Sinker: 17.3%Curveball: 14.9%Split-Finger: 1.9% MIX FF 23%FC 22%ST 21%SI 17%CU 15%FS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.3FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCST: HB -0.6, IVB 2.7STSI: HB 0.8, IVB 1.9SICU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.3CUFS: HB -0.9, IVB 2.5FSSL: HB 0.1, IVB 2.2SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.6% 126 107 limited sample
FB 23.0% 123 100 limited sample
SL 21.0% 112 101 limited sample
SI 17.6% 94 98 limited sample
CB 14.8% 79 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.46
K% Δ+0.010
Sample37.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.1----
Batters Faced140----
K%18.3%0.1% to 20.0%+/- 10.0%
BB%7.5%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%20.3%0.7% to 24.9%+/- 12.1%
HR/91.270.00 to 1.48+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2890.002 to 0.339+/- 0.168
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.490.88 to 6.44+/- 2.78
FIP3.570.38 to 6.19+/- 2.91
WHIP1.2630.183 to 1.502+/- 0.659
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%