Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Watson, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
0.1% to 20.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.54
ERA current pace3.99
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.26 3.19 4.23 5.26 6.20
FIP
1.71 2.69 3.78 4.88 5.86
K%
14.5% 16.7% 19.1% 21.5% 23.7%
BB%
4.5% 5.5% 6.6% 7.7% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
64
ERA3.99
52
BB%7.1%
75
K%21.1%
43 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.331
30 -49 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.7%
17 -35 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed37.9%
54
Whiff%23.0%
54 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Curveball Stuff+101
37
Cutter Stuff+106
92
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Slider Stuff+101
47
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Watson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.331 2026-09-12: 0.3362026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3322026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3322026-09-22: 0.3322026-09-23: 0.3322026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.331 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Watson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 24.1%Sweeper: 23.7%4-Seam Fastball: 19.1%Curveball: 17.5%Sinker: 14.6%Split-Finger: 1.1% FC24% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 24%ST 24%FF 19%CU 18%SI 15%FS 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 83.3 mphCU83 mphSinker: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.5 mphSI94 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphFS89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.4% 160 106 limited sample
SL 22.4% 153 101 limited sample
FB 22.0% 150 102 limited sample
CB 16.8% 115 101 limited sample
SI 15.4% 105 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.47
K% Δ+0.037
Sample76.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.9----
Batters Faced135----
K%17.4%0.1% to 20.0%+/- 10.0%
BB%7.5%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%20.3%0.7% to 24.9%+/- 12.1%
HR/91.290.00 to 1.50+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.2870.002 to 0.336+/- 0.167
Barrel% Allowed7.3%0.1% to 9.6%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.460.88 to 6.39+/- 2.76
FIP3.570.38 to 6.19+/- 2.91
WHIP1.2320.177 to 1.462+/- 0.642
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

2 career BF

xwOBA0.005
K%0.3%
BB%0.1%
Barrel0.1%