Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Schreiber, John

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
15.8% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace2.95
ERA rolling p503.72
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.30 2.98 3.72 4.47 5.14
FIP
3.57 3.93 4.33 4.73 5.10
K%
15.0% 17.2% 19.6% 22.0% 24.1%
BB%
7.3% 8.6% 10.1% 11.5% 12.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.0%
23 -24 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.4%
68 +17 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
24
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
47
K%14.7%
6 -36 vs proj
Whiff%21.2%
34
xwOBA allowed0.354
14 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Schreiber, John · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3842026-05-19: 0.3842026-05-21: 0.3612026-05-23: 0.3612026-05-24: 0.3612026-05-25: 0.3662026-05-26: 0.3662026-05-28: 0.3622026-05-29: 0.3622026-05-30: 0.3622026-05-31: 0.3622026-06-01: 0.354 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Schreiber, John · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schreiber, John · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.7%Sinker: 23.3%Sweeper: 23.3%Cutter: 16.2%Changeup: 12.5% MIX FF 25%SI 23%ST 23%FC 16%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Schreiber, John · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.8FFSI: HB 0.5, IVB 2.8SIST: HB -0.5, IVB 3.3STFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.5FCCH: HB -0.6, IVB 3.4CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 25.3% 90 99 limited sample
SI 23.6% 84 104 limited sample
SL 22.8% 81 93 limited sample
FC 16.9% 60 103 limited sample
CH 11.5% 41 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Sweeper 28%, Sinker 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.88
K% Δ-0.065
Sample25.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.7----
Batters Faced169----
K%21.2%15.8% to 28.5%+/- 6.3%
BB%8.9%5.8% to 13.2%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%20.9%17.4% to 26.1%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.310.60 to 2.08+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3200.256 to 0.359+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed7.7%3.9% to 11.2%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.832.66 to 6.42+/- 1.88
FIP4.193.05 to 5.08+/- 1.01
WHIP1.3251.046 to 1.681+/- 0.318
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

477 career BF

xwOBA0.302
K%18.3%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

700 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%21.3%
BB%8.0%
Barrel7.2%