Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Burgos, Raymond

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
0.1% to 21.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.46
ERA current pace5.19
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight25%
ERA
1.74 2.76 3.90 5.04 6.06
FIP
1.16 2.30 3.58 4.85 6.00
K%
9.9% 13.7% 18.0% 22.2% 26.0%
BB%
1.9% 3.6% 5.4% 7.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.84
99
ERA5.19
23
BB%1.2%
100 +47 vs proj
K%19.5%
32 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
87 +32 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
69 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo90.5
5
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
65
Whiff%18.2%
14 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+96
17
Cutter Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Sinker Stuff+107
85
Slider Stuff+105
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

1 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Burgos, Raymond · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.275 2026-09-26: 0.275 2026-09-26 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Burgos, Raymond · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 56%56%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burgos, Raymond · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 43.5%Sweeper: 33.6%Cutter: 11.6%Changeup: 9.2%4-Seam Fastball: 2.1% SI43% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 43%ST 34%FC 12%CH 9%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Burgos, Raymond · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 43% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.5 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 78.1 mphST78 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.0 mphFC86 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.5 mphFF90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 43.1% 106 107 limited sample
SL 30.1% 74 105 limited sample
FC 13.8% 34 99 limited sample
CH 10.6% 26 96 limited sample
FB 2.4% 6 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.61
K% Δ-0.025
Sample21.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.5----
Batters Faced143----
K%21.9%0.1% to 21.3%+/- 10.6%
BB%8.6%0.1% to 9.5%+/- 4.7%
Whiff%21.6%0.3% to 25.6%+/- 12.7%
HR/91.380.00 to 1.46+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3090.001 to 0.342+/- 0.171
Barrel% Allowed7.6%0.1% to 9.7%+/- 4.8%
ERA4.580.00 to 5.49+/- 2.74
FIP3.830.43 to 6.57+/- 3.07
WHIP1.3480.273 to 1.614+/- 0.670
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3 career BF

xwOBA0.019
K%1.7%
BB%1.0%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

4 career BF

xwOBA0.021
K%1.5%
BB%1.1%
Barrel0.1%