Festa, Matt
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.21 |
| ERA current pace | 4.44 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.29 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 45.7% | 171 | 104 | limited sample |
| FB | 40.9% | 153 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.5% | 28 | 94 | limited sample |
| SI | 5.9% | 22 | 88 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.53 |
| K% Δ | +0.008 |
| Sample | 26.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 35.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 151 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.6% | 17.4% to 30.1% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 4.5% to 13.0% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 23.1% | 18.7% to 28.7% | +/- 5.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.00 | 0.44 to 1.89 | +/- 0.73 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.250 to 0.347 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 4.0% to 11.1% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 3.91 | 2.34 to 7.17 | +/- 2.41 |
| FIP | 3.70 | 2.62 to 5.16 | +/- 1.27 |
| WHIP | 1.228 | 1.011 to 1.608 | +/- 0.298 |
314 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |
469 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |