Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Scholtens, Jesse

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
13.4% to 28.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal4 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-20
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace3.82
ERA rolling p503.98
Observed weight41%
ERA
2.02 2.95 3.98 5.01 5.93
FIP
3.42 3.95 4.53 5.12 5.64
K%
14.7% 17.0% 19.4% 21.9% 24.1%
BB%
4.8% 6.0% 7.3% 8.6% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
57
ERA3.82
54
BB%6.7%
80
K%18.3%
20 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.346
20 -46 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.8%
14 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
22
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
59
Whiff%18.0%
12 -38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-20
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+104
66
Fastball Stuff+104
60
Sinker Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scholtens, Jesse · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.346 2026-07-09: 0.3462026-07-10: 0.3462026-07-11: 0.3462026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3462026-07-14: 0.3462026-07-15: 0.3462026-07-16: 0.3462026-07-17: 0.3462026-07-18: 0.3462026-07-19: 0.3462026-07-20: 0.346 2026-07-09 2026-07-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scholtens, Jesse · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scholtens, Jesse · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.4%Sinker: 24.5%4-Seam Fastball: 22.0%Split-Finger: 11.0%Sweeper: 10.1% SL32% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 32%SI 24%FF 22%FS 11%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scholtens, Jesse · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphSinker: 24% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.0 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.0 mphFS84 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.2 mphST80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.9% 256 104 qualified
SI 27.5% 147 101 limited sample
FB 24.7% 132 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Slider 33%, Sweeper 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.57
K% Δ-0.037
Sample37.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.1----
Batters Faced148----
K%22.0%13.4% to 28.2%+/- 7.4%
BB%7.7%4.5% to 12.2%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%22.9%16.6% to 29.1%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.160.56 to 2.68+/- 1.06
xwOBA Against0.2990.267 to 0.376+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed8.1%4.2% to 12.5%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.392.12 to 7.55+/- 2.72
FIP4.112.96 to 6.05+/- 1.54
WHIP1.3751.112 to 1.830+/- 0.359
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

195 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%14.9%
BB%7.4%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

239 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%15.6%
BB%5.9%
Barrel8.2%