Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Blanco, Ronel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
18.2% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal5 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace7.11
ERA rolling p504.88
Observed weight36%
ERA
3.81 4.32 4.88 5.45 5.96
FIP
3.77 4.34 4.98 5.62 6.20
K%
18.3% 20.2% 22.2% 24.3% 26.2%
BB%
7.8% 8.7% 9.7% 10.7% 11.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
29
ERA7.11
3
BB%11.0%
25 -19 vs proj
K%19.1%
31 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.345
17 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
18 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
60
Whiff%20.5%
31 -51 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+107
87
Curveball Stuff+103
58
Fastball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Slider Stuff+102
51
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Blanco, Ronel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.345 2026-09-12: 0.3542026-09-13: 0.3542026-09-14: 0.3452026-09-18: 0.3452026-09-19: 0.3452026-09-20: 0.3452026-09-21: 0.3452026-09-22: 0.3452026-09-23: 0.3452026-09-24: 0.3452026-09-25: 0.3452026-09-26: 0.345 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Blanco, Ronel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blanco, Ronel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.9%Changeup: 26.9%Slider: 20.9%Curveball: 15.4% FF37% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 37%CH 27%SL 21%CU 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Blanco, Ronel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.0 mphCH85 mphSlider: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.0% 109 101 limited sample
CH 25.4% 73 107 limited sample
SL 25.4% 73 102 limited sample
CB 11.1% 32 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.285 vs 0.258 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Slider 32%, Curveball 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.16
K% Δ-0.040
Sample31.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.1----
Batters Faced564----
K%23.1%18.2% to 29.5%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.4%7.2% to 11.6%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.9%23.1% to 31.4%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.320.69 to 1.95+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3170.264 to 0.331+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.8% to 11.2%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.951.93 to 4.86+/- 1.47
FIP4.173.15 to 6.46+/- 1.66
WHIP1.2320.924 to 1.400+/- 0.238
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

595 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%20.9%
BB%10.1%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

639 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%23.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel7.2%