Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Hanifee, Brenan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.9% K%
Range
12.0% to 25.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.83
ERA current pace5.06
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight30%
ERA
2.45 3.28 4.20 5.12 5.95
FIP
3.69 4.19 4.75 5.31 5.81
K%
10.6% 13.0% 15.5% 18.1% 20.5%
BB%
3.5% 4.9% 6.4% 7.9% 9.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
40
ERA5.06
25
BB%6.9%
78
K%10.9%
1 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.370
6 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.0%
15 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed47.5%
3
Whiff%12.2%
0
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+101
42
Fastball Stuff+88
3
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+102
44
Slider Stuff+100
37
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 61%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hanifee, Brenan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.370 2026-09-13: 0.3702026-09-14: 0.3702026-09-18: 0.3702026-09-19: 0.3702026-09-20: 0.3702026-09-21: 0.3702026-09-22: 0.3702026-09-23: 0.3702026-09-24: 0.3702026-09-25: 0.3702026-09-26: 0.3702026-09-27: 0.370 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hanifee, Brenan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 12%12%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hanifee, Brenan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 60.6%Slider: 23.2%4-Seam Fastball: 8.7%Changeup: 7.2%Split-Finger: 0.3% SI61% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 61%SL 23%FF 9%CH 7%FS 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hanifee, Brenan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 61% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSlider: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.3 mphFS85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 63.1% 113 102 limited sample
SL 20.7% 37 100 limited sample
CH 10.1% 18 101 limited sample
FB 6.1% 11 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.323 vs 0.281 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 63%, Slider 21%, 4-Seam Fastball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.13
K% Δ-0.070
Sample23.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.1----
Batters Faced156----
K%17.9%12.0% to 25.5%+/- 6.8%
BB%6.6%3.5% to 11.2%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%15.8%11.3% to 22.0%+/- 5.4%
HR/91.210.35 to 2.19+/- 0.92
xwOBA Against0.3240.254 to 0.405+/- 0.076
Barrel% Allowed7.2%3.1% to 10.8%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.931.20 to 5.78+/- 2.29
FIP4.112.68 to 5.46+/- 1.39
WHIP1.3241.070 to 1.690+/- 0.310
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

150 career BF

xwOBA0.323
K%14.1%
BB%7.1%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

302 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%15.9%
BB%4.5%
Barrel5.7%