Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Wesneski, Hayden

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
18.6% to 30.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace3.70
ERA rolling p503.93
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.91 3.40 3.93 4.47 4.95
FIP
3.48 3.76 4.06 4.36 4.64
K%
17.7% 19.3% 21.1% 22.9% 24.5%
BB%
6.3% 7.1% 8.0% 8.9% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
79
ERA3.70
61
BB%8.7%
52 -17 vs proj
K%18.7%
28 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.304
61 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
79 +51 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
37
Whiff%20.9%
35 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Changeup Stuff+104
66
Cutter Stuff+105
84
Fastball Stuff+95
13
Sinker Stuff+101
37
Slider Stuff+104
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wesneski, Hayden · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.304 2026-09-12: 0.2972026-09-13: 0.2972026-09-14: 0.2972026-09-18: 0.2972026-09-19: 0.2972026-09-20: 0.2972026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.304 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wesneski, Hayden · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 32%32%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 29.2%4-Seam Fastball: 24.6%Sinker: 17.9%Cutter: 16.3%Changeup: 11.8%Curveball: 0.2% ST29% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 29%FF 25%SI 18%FC 16%CH 12%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wesneski, Hayden · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sweeper: 29% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.3 mphST81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphSinker: 18% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.5 mphSI93 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.4 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 72.7 mphCU73 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.2% 162 104 limited sample
FB 24.2% 139 95 limited sample
SI 18.3% 105 101 limited sample
FC 16.0% 92 105 limited sample
CH 13.4% 77 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 25%, Cutter 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.78
K% Δ-0.036
Sample53.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.9----
Batters Faced279----
K%22.4%18.6% to 30.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%7.7%5.3% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.8%19.2% to 28.6%+/- 4.7%
HR/91.621.17 to 2.38+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.354+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.0% to 12.5%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.482.80 to 5.68+/- 1.44
FIP4.473.34 to 4.97+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2410.977 to 1.481+/- 0.252
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

414 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%19.8%
BB%7.3%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

576 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%22.8%
BB%5.9%
Barrel9.5%