Murphy, Chris
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.03 |
| ERA current pace | 10.50 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 5.07 |
| Observed weight | 16% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 38.8% | 52 | 83 | limited sample |
| FB | 23.9% | 32 | 95 | limited sample |
| CB | 17.2% | 23 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 12.7% | 17 | 112 | limited sample |
| CH | 7.5% | 10 | 111 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 35.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 155 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.8% | 16.6% to 29.2% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 6.9% to 15.4% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 24.0% | 19.8% to 29.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.55 to 2.17 | +/- 0.81 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.261 to 0.340 | +/- 0.040 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.6% | 3.6% to 11.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 4.15 | 2.35 to 6.16 | +/- 1.91 |
| FIP | 4.38 | 3.41 to 5.52 | +/- 1.06 |
| WHIP | 1.384 | 0.967 to 1.627 | +/- 0.330 |
141 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.251 |
| K% | 19.8% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
226 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 10.0% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |