Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Murphy, Chris

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
16.6% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace4.57
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.75 3.44 4.20 4.96 5.64
FIP
3.54 3.92 4.34 4.76 5.14
K%
17.4% 19.6% 22.0% 24.4% 26.6%
BB%
7.8% 9.3% 11.0% 12.7% 14.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
36
ERA4.57
34
BB%12.1%
16 -18 vs proj
K%19.6%
30 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.304
60
Barrel allowed7.1%
59
Fastball velo95.8
72
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
87
Whiff%26.4%
74 +18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+108
91
Curveball Stuff+105
93
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Slider Stuff+85
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Murphy, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.304 2026-07-05: 0.2812026-07-06: 0.2812026-07-07: 0.2942026-07-08: 0.2942026-07-09: 0.2942026-07-10: 0.2952026-07-11: 0.2952026-07-12: 0.2952026-07-13: 0.3042026-07-14: 0.3042026-07-15: 0.3042026-07-16: 0.304 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Murphy, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murphy, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.9%Slider: 30.4%Curveball: 22.2%Sweeper: 6.0%Sinker: 5.7%Changeup: 4.1% FF31% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 31%SL 30%CU 22%ST 6%SI 6%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murphy, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphSlider: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.2 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.8 mphCU78 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSinker: 6% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSlurve: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 83.4 mphSV83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.8% 64 85 limited sample
FB 29.6% 53 104 limited sample
CB 19.0% 34 105 limited sample
SI 9.5% 17 112 limited sample
CH 6.1% 11 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Curveball 31%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.43
K% Δ-0.022
Sample24.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.8----
Batters Faced152----
K%21.9%16.6% to 29.2%+/- 6.3%
BB%9.9%6.9% to 15.4%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%24.0%19.8% to 29.9%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.270.55 to 2.17+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3160.261 to 0.340+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.6%3.6% to 11.5%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.142.35 to 6.16+/- 1.91
FIP4.383.41 to 5.52+/- 1.06
WHIP1.3720.967 to 1.627+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

141 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%19.8%
BB%9.8%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHH

226 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%18.1%
BB%10.0%
Barrel7.2%