Bender, Anthony
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.76 |
| ERA current pace | 3.38 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.65 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 62.4% | 219 | 110 | qualified |
| SI | 32.8% | 115 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 2.8% | 10 | 90 | limited sample |
| FB | 2.0% | 7 | 90 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.78 |
| K% Δ | +0.029 |
| Sample | 25.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 37.9 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 159 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.1% | 17.3% to 30.8% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 5.9% to 13.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| Whiff% | 21.0% | 16.8% to 27.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.03 | 0.16 to 1.64 | +/- 0.74 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.308 | 0.250 to 0.344 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.3% | 3.5% to 10.5% | +/- 3.5% |
| ERA | 4.16 | 2.06 to 5.49 | +/- 1.72 |
| FIP | 3.81 | 2.60 to 4.83 | +/- 1.12 |
| WHIP | 1.319 | 0.967 to 1.498 | +/- 0.265 |
329 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |
492 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |