Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Bender, Anthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
17.3% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
77
Arsenal4 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace2.62
ERA rolling p503.32
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.08 2.67 3.32 3.98 4.57
FIP
2.43 2.82 3.24 3.67 4.05
K%
20.9% 23.0% 25.4% 27.8% 29.9%
BB%
6.2% 7.4% 8.7% 10.0% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
92
ERA2.62
90
BB%8.1%
61
K%28.9%
89 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.253
95 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
65
Fastball velo96.3
80
Hard-hit allowed34.1%
82
Whiff%21.4%
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Slider Stuff+110
96
Changeup Stuff+87
4
Mithrandir Stuff+108
96
Sinker Stuff+104
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bender, Anthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.253 2026-09-13: 0.2542026-09-14: 0.2542026-09-18: 0.2532026-09-19: 0.2542026-09-20: 0.2542026-09-21: 0.2542026-09-22: 0.2542026-09-23: 0.2542026-09-24: 0.2542026-09-25: 0.2542026-09-26: 0.2532026-09-27: 0.253 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bender, Anthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 26%26%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bender, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 51.1%Sinker: 31.2%Slider: 13.5%Changeup: 2.6%4-Seam Fastball: 1.6% ST51% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 51%SI 31%SL 14%CH 3%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bender, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 51% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphST84 mphSinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphSlider: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.5 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.5 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.5 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 63.2% 259 110 qualified
SI 32.4% 133 104 limited sample
CH 2.4% 10 87 limited sample
FB 2.0% 8 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.285 vs 0.255 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 45%, Sinker 28%, Slider 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.55
K% Δ+0.058
Sample36.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.8----
Batters Faced154----
K%23.1%17.3% to 30.8%+/- 6.7%
BB%8.9%5.9% to 13.2%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%21.0%16.8% to 27.7%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.030.16 to 1.64+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3080.250 to 0.344+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.5% to 10.5%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.172.06 to 5.49+/- 1.72
FIP3.812.60 to 4.83+/- 1.12
WHIP1.3190.967 to 1.498+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

329 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%19.1%
BB%9.8%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

492 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%21.8%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.5%