Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Bender, Anthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
17.3% to 30.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.76
ERA current pace3.38
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight30%
ERA
2.34 2.96 3.65 4.33 4.95
FIP
2.68 3.08 3.52 3.97 4.37
K%
19.1% 21.5% 24.1% 26.7% 29.1%
BB%
6.2% 7.5% 9.0% 10.4% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
52
Barrel allowed7.6%
52
Fastball velo96.3
80
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
83
K%26.0%
75 +20 vs proj
Whiff%17.1%
9 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.272
83 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bender, Anthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.2712026-05-23: 0.2712026-05-24: 0.2592026-05-25: 0.2712026-05-26: 0.2712026-05-28: 0.2712026-05-29: 0.2712026-05-30: 0.2712026-05-31: 0.2692026-06-01: 0.272 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bender, Anthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 27%27%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bender, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 48.0%Sinker: 31.6%Slider: 15.1%Changeup: 3.3%4-Seam Fastball: 2.0% MIX ST 48%SI 32%SL 15%CH 3%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bender, Anthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.6, IVB 3.1STSI: HB 0.3, IVB 2.3SISL: HB 0.3, IVB 3.2SLCH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.2CHFF: HB -0.7, IVB 1.3FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 62.4% 219 110 qualified
SI 32.8% 115 102 limited sample
CH 2.8% 10 90 limited sample
FB 2.0% 7 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.285 vs 0.255 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 45%, Sinker 28%, Slider 22%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.78
K% Δ+0.029
Sample25.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.9----
Batters Faced159----
K%23.1%17.3% to 30.8%+/- 6.7%
BB%8.9%5.9% to 13.2%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%21.0%16.8% to 27.7%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.030.16 to 1.64+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.3080.250 to 0.344+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.3%3.5% to 10.5%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.162.06 to 5.49+/- 1.72
FIP3.812.60 to 4.83+/- 1.12
WHIP1.3190.967 to 1.498+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

329 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%19.1%
BB%9.8%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

492 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%21.8%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.5%