Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Liberatore, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal7 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace5.00
ERA rolling p504.75
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.61 4.15 4.75 5.34 5.88
FIP
3.96 4.22 4.50 4.79 5.04
K%
19.1% 20.1% 21.3% 22.5% 23.6%
BB%
6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
24
ERA5.00
25
BB%8.6%
51 -26 vs proj
K%21.6%
44 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
28
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
25
Whiff%21.2%
36
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Cutter Stuff+96
10
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Liberatore, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.350 2026-07-05: 0.3592026-07-06: 0.3592026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3572026-07-11: 0.3572026-07-12: 0.3572026-07-13: 0.3502026-07-14: 0.3502026-07-15: 0.3502026-07-16: 0.350 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Liberatore, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.9%Slider: 22.9%Curveball: 16.8%Changeup: 15.0%Sinker: 8.8%Cutter: 4.1% FF32% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SL 23%CU 17%CH 15%SI 9%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 79.5 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSinker: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCutter: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.0 mphFS87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.6% 394 101 qualified
SL 23.7% 295 103 qualified
CB 16.4% 205 102 qualified
CH 14.7% 183 105 limited sample
SI 9.1% 113 106 limited sample
FC 4.6% 57 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 21%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.49
K% Δ+0.029
Sample96.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.8----
Batters Faced314----
K%18.7%16.8% to 25.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.9%5.1% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%17.8% to 24.6%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.350.83 to 1.90+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.295 to 0.362+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.9% to 11.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.512.78 to 5.87+/- 1.54
FIP4.283.13 to 4.60+/- 0.73
WHIP1.3271.037 to 1.528+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

399 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%20.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1161 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%18.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.5%