Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Liberatore, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal7 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace5.36
ERA rolling p505.09
Observed weight74%
ERA
3.87 4.45 5.09 5.72 6.30
FIP
3.88 4.15 4.45 4.76 5.03
K%
20.5% 21.4% 22.4% 23.4% 24.3%
BB%
6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 8.4% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
25
ERA5.36
19
BB%8.1%
61 -18 vs proj
K%22.9%
57 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
22
Barrel allowed9.1%
24
Fastball velo94.3
48
Hard-hit allowed42.6%
21
Whiff%22.5%
49 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+106
77
Curveball Stuff+103
56
Fastball Stuff+101
45
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+102
53
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Sinker Stuff+109
93
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Liberatore, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-12: 0.3432026-09-13: 0.3432026-09-14: 0.3432026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3412026-09-22: 0.3412026-09-23: 0.3412026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.341 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Liberatore, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.7%Slider: 26.4%Curveball: 17.9%Changeup: 12.6%Sinker: 8.3%Cutter: 4.1% FF30% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 30%SL 26%CU 18%CH 13%SI 8%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 79.5 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.5 mphCH89 mphSinker: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.2 mphSI94 mphCutter: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.5 mphFC91 mphSweeper: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.0 mphST85 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.0 mphFS87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.8% 601 101 qualified
SL 27.2% 548 102 qualified
CB 18.0% 363 103 qualified
CH 12.7% 256 106 qualified
SI 7.9% 160 109 limited sample
FC 4.4% 89 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 21%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.85
K% Δ+0.042
Sample156.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.8----
Batters Faced318----
K%18.7%16.8% to 25.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.9%5.1% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%17.8% to 24.6%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.350.83 to 1.90+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.295 to 0.362+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.9% to 11.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.512.78 to 5.87+/- 1.54
FIP4.283.13 to 4.60+/- 0.73
WHIP1.3271.037 to 1.528+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

399 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%20.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1161 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%18.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.5%