Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Liberatore, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.7% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace4.76
ERA rolling p504.55
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.45 3.97 4.55 5.12 5.64
FIP
3.76 4.00 4.28 4.55 4.80
K%
18.7% 19.9% 21.3% 22.6% 23.9%
BB%
6.3% 7.0% 7.8% 8.6% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
56 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
34
Fastball velo94.5
52
Hard-hit allowed44.9%
17
K%21.6%
46 +24 vs proj
Whiff%21.2%
34
xwOBA allowed0.355
13 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Liberatore, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3742026-05-19: 0.3742026-05-21: 0.3692026-05-23: 0.3692026-05-24: 0.3692026-05-25: 0.3692026-05-26: 0.3632026-05-28: 0.3632026-05-29: 0.3632026-05-30: 0.3632026-05-31: 0.3632026-06-01: 0.355 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Liberatore, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.9%Slider: 23.0%Curveball: 15.4%Changeup: 15.3%Sinker: 9.6%Cutter: 4.3% MIX FF 32%SL 23%CU 15%CH 15%SI 10%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.9SLCU: HB 0.6, IVB 5.2CUCH: HB -1.3, IVB 2.1CHSI: HB 0.0, IVB 1.4SIFC: HB 0.1, IVB 1.8FCFS: HB -0.6, IVB 2.4FS horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.4% 325 100 qualified
SL 23.0% 231 103 qualified
CB 15.8% 158 102 limited sample
CH 15.2% 152 107 limited sample
SI 9.4% 94 105 limited sample
FC 4.3% 43 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.282 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 21%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.25
K% Δ+0.029
Sample64.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.1----
Batters Faced315----
K%18.7%16.8% to 25.3%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.9%5.1% to 9.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%17.8% to 24.6%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.350.83 to 1.90+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3300.295 to 0.362+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.9% to 11.9%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.512.78 to 5.87+/- 1.54
FIP4.283.13 to 4.60+/- 0.73
WHIP1.3261.037 to 1.528+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

399 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%20.4%
BB%6.1%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1161 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%18.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.5%