Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Mlodzinski, Carmen

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
16.6% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace3.24
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.33 2.83 3.39 3.95 4.46
FIP
3.01 3.35 3.73 4.10 4.44
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.7% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.8% 8.6% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA3.24
71
BB%8.0%
61
K%18.3%
21 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
54
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
7
Whiff%18.5%
14 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+105
96
Slider Stuff+105
76
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mlodzinski, Carmen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-07-06: 0.3372026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3372026-07-09: 0.3332026-07-10: 0.3332026-07-11: 0.3332026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.3372026-07-17: 0.337 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mlodzinski, Carmen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Split-Finger: 25.4%Sinker: 17.4%Curveball: 12.1%Sweeper: 10.6%Slider: 5.0% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%FS 25%SI 17%CU 12%ST 11%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.6 mphFS86 mphSinker: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.9 mphCU84 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphST84 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.6 mphSL91 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.4% 318 100 qualified
SI 24.7% 210 103 qualified
SL 22.5% 191 105 limited sample
CB 15.4% 131 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Sinker 15%, Split-Finger 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.29
K% Δ-0.026
Sample80.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.4----
Batters Faced296----
K%20.9%16.6% to 27.7%+/- 5.5%
BB%7.8%5.0% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%21.5%17.8% to 27.3%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.130.48 to 1.76+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3040.259 to 0.332+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed6.5%3.7% to 9.2%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.532.30 to 5.25+/- 1.48
FIP3.882.51 to 4.50+/- 0.99
WHIP1.3241.077 to 1.568+/- 0.245
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

376 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%18.4%
BB%7.2%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHH

437 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%19.3%
BB%6.7%
Barrel5.2%