Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Ginn, J.t.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.5% K%
Range
18.1% to 28.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal6 metrics
29
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-17
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace3.15
ERA rolling p503.47
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.16 2.78 3.47 4.16 4.78
FIP
3.47 3.76 4.08 4.40 4.69
K%
19.5% 20.9% 22.3% 23.8% 25.1%
BB%
7.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.6% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
58
ERA3.15
68
BB%9.5%
40 -27 vs proj
K%21.4%
42
xwOBA allowed0.309
55
Barrel allowed6.7%
62 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
44
Hard-hit allowed39.3%
50
Whiff%24.8%
65
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-17
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Sinker Stuff+101
43
Changeup Stuff+100
35
Cutter Stuff+94
5
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Slider Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ginn, J.t. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.309 2026-06-06: 0.3062026-06-07: 0.3062026-06-08: 0.3062026-06-09: 0.3062026-06-10: 0.3062026-06-11: 0.3072026-06-12: 0.3072026-06-13: 0.3072026-06-14: 0.3072026-06-15: 0.3072026-06-16: 0.3092026-06-17: 0.309 2026-06-06 2026-06-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ginn, J.t. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 34.6%Cutter: 19.3%Changeup: 18.7%Slider: 15.7%4-Seam Fastball: 11.6% SI35% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 35%FC 19%CH 19%SL 16%FF 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ginn, J.t. · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 35% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphCutter: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.1 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.3% 364 101 qualified
FC 17.8% 184 94 limited sample
SL 17.3% 178 101 limited sample
CH 17.1% 176 100 limited sample
FB 12.5% 129 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.283 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 51%, Slider 26%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.83
K% Δ-0.012
Sample79.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.1----
Batters Faced296----
K%22.5%18.1% to 28.7%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.5%4.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%24.4%22.3% to 31.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.360.77 to 2.31+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3110.246 to 0.328+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.5% to 11.9%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.982.70 to 6.36+/- 1.83
FIP3.992.87 to 4.56+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2601.026 to 1.549+/- 0.261
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

273 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%18.8%
BB%7.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

286 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%23.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.5%