Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Gilbert, Logan

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
21.9% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal6 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.51
ERA current pace3.32
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.32 2.82 3.39 3.95 4.45
FIP
2.94 3.20 3.49 3.78 4.04
K%
24.0% 25.3% 26.7% 28.1% 29.4%
BB%
4.3% 4.8% 5.4% 6.1% 6.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.00
90
ERA3.32
69
BB%5.3%
94
K%26.4%
76
xwOBA allowed0.303
63
Barrel allowed10.6%
14 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
21
Whiff%26.8%
77
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+109
91
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Slider Stuff+106
82
Changeup Stuff+107
84
Curveball Stuff+105
94
Cutter Stuff+106
90
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gilbert, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-05: 0.3052026-07-06: 0.2962026-07-07: 0.2962026-07-08: 0.2962026-07-09: 0.2962026-07-10: 0.2962026-07-11: 0.2962026-07-12: 0.2962026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.303 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gilbert, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.3%Slider: 23.2%Split-Finger: 13.6%Curveball: 8.2%Changeup: 7.5%Cutter: 7.5% FF39% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 39%SL 23%FS 14%CU 8%CH 8%FC 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 81.4 mphFS81 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 80.7 mphCU81 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCutter: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mphSinker: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 76.5 mphST76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.4% 347 109 qualified
SL 25.2% 228 106 qualified
FC 13.2% 119 106 limited sample
CB 12.9% 117 105 limited sample
CH 9.8% 89 107 limited sample
SI 0.4% 4 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Slider 35%, Split-Finger 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.15
K% Δ-0.002
Sample112.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.9----
Batters Faced313----
K%26.6%21.9% to 33.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%5.8%3.6% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.6%24.1% to 32.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.271.04 to 2.09+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.2870.256 to 0.312+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.4% to 11.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.472.31 to 5.20+/- 1.44
FIP3.482.68 to 4.18+/- 0.75
WHIP1.0230.848 to 1.358+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1706 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%27.4%
BB%5.2%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1921 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.5%
BB%4.6%
Barrel8.5%