Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Gilbert, Logan

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
21.9% to 33.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.51
ERA current pace3.69
ERA rolling p503.61
Observed weight54%
ERA
2.58 3.07 3.61 4.15 4.63
FIP
3.36 3.61 3.89 4.17 4.42
K%
22.7% 24.3% 26.0% 27.7% 29.3%
BB%
4.3% 5.0% 5.7% 6.4% 7.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
88
Barrel allowed10.6%
19 -20 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
70
Hard-hit allowed45.7%
14
K%24.8%
68
Whiff%25.2%
66
xwOBA allowed0.315
48 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gilbert, Logan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3232026-05-19: 0.3232026-05-21: 0.3232026-05-23: 0.3152026-05-24: 0.3152026-05-25: 0.3152026-05-26: 0.3152026-05-28: 0.3152026-05-29: 0.3152026-05-30: 0.3152026-05-31: 0.3152026-06-01: 0.315 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gilbert, Logan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.1%Slider: 21.8%Split-Finger: 15.8%Cutter: 11.0%Curveball: 10.7%Changeup: 8.3% MIX FF 32%SL 22%FS 16%FC 11%CU 11%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gilbert, Logan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.1FFSL: HB 0.0, IVB 3.2SLFS: HB -0.1, IVB 3.7FSFC: HB 0.2, IVB 1.8FCCU: HB -0.4, IVB 3.9CUCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.9CHSI: HB 0.6, IVB 2.0SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.4% 347 109 qualified
SL 25.2% 228 106 qualified
FC 13.2% 119 106 limited sample
CB 12.9% 117 106 limited sample
CH 9.8% 89 107 limited sample
SI 0.4% 4 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 36%, Slider 35%, Split-Finger 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.22
K% Δ-0.018
Sample67.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings78.2----
Batters Faced315----
K%26.6%21.9% to 33.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%5.8%3.6% to 8.0%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%26.6%24.1% to 32.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.271.04 to 2.09+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.2870.256 to 0.312+/- 0.028
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.4% to 11.8%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.472.31 to 5.20+/- 1.44
FIP3.482.69 to 4.18+/- 0.74
WHIP1.0230.848 to 1.358+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1706 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%27.4%
BB%5.2%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1921 career BF

xwOBA0.271
K%25.5%
BB%4.6%
Barrel8.5%