Lee, Dylan
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.48 |
| ERA current pace | 1.40 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.84 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 55.2% | 207 | 105 | qualified |
| FB | 27.5% | 103 | 109 | limited sample |
| CH | 17.3% | 65 | 104 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.93 |
| K% Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 28.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 39.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 160 | -- | -- |
| K% | 27.5% | 21.0% to 35.7% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 3.8% to 10.7% | +/- 3.4% |
| Whiff% | 30.0% | 25.7% to 36.3% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.33 | 0.68 to 2.54 | +/- 0.93 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.293 | 0.233 to 0.340 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.3% to 14.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| ERA | 3.33 | 1.68 to 5.92 | +/- 2.12 |
| FIP | 3.62 | 2.64 to 4.96 | +/- 1.16 |
| WHIP | 1.084 | 0.864 to 1.524 | +/- 0.330 |
351 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 29.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 8.9% |
554 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 11.1% |