Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Lee, Dylan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
27.5% K%
Range
21.0% to 35.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace1.40
ERA rolling p502.84
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.23 2.00 2.84 3.69 4.46
FIP
2.22 2.64 3.11 3.57 3.99
K%
25.0% 27.5% 30.4% 33.2% 35.8%
BB%
3.2% 4.4% 5.7% 7.0% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%2.9%
100 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.5%
86 +47 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
31
Hard-hit allowed31.8%
87
K%34.3%
97 +15 vs proj
Whiff%35.7%
99
xwOBA allowed0.206
100 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lee, Dylan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.1922026-05-19: 0.1922026-05-21: 0.1942026-05-23: 0.2102026-05-24: 0.2102026-05-25: 0.2102026-05-26: 0.2102026-05-28: 0.2092026-05-29: 0.2092026-05-30: 0.2092026-05-31: 0.2022026-06-01: 0.206 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lee, Dylan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 36%36%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lee, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 54.3%4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Changeup: 17.8% MIX SL 54%FF 28%CH 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lee, Dylan · 2026 arsenal snapshot SL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.9SLFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.0FFCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.1CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 55.2% 207 105 qualified
FB 27.5% 103 109 limited sample
CH 17.3% 65 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.250 vs 0.273 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 56%, 4-Seam Fastball 31%, Changeup 13%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.93
K% Δ+0.067
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.8----
Batters Faced160----
K%27.5%21.0% to 35.7%+/- 7.3%
BB%6.9%3.8% to 10.7%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%30.0%25.7% to 36.3%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.330.68 to 2.54+/- 0.93
xwOBA Against0.2930.233 to 0.340+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.3% to 14.4%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.331.68 to 5.92+/- 2.12
FIP3.622.64 to 4.96+/- 1.16
WHIP1.0840.864 to 1.524+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

351 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%29.9%
BB%4.8%
Barrel8.9%
vs RHH

554 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%25.6%
BB%6.1%
Barrel11.1%