Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Kuhnel, Joel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
7.6% to 25.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.58
ERA current pace2.46
ERA rolling p503.22
Observed weight32%
ERA
1.36 2.24 3.22 4.20 5.08
FIP
2.57 3.08 3.65 4.22 4.74
K%
9.9% 12.8% 16.0% 19.3% 22.1%
BB%
2.6% 4.0% 5.6% 7.1% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.1%
84
Barrel allowed6.7%
66
Fastball velo94.5
53
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
59
K%11.4%
1 -48 vs proj
Whiff%18.8%
18 -40 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
32 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kuhnel, Joel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-21: 0.3182026-05-23: 0.3482026-05-24: 0.3342026-05-25: 0.3342026-05-26: 0.3302026-05-28: 0.3332026-05-29: 0.3332026-05-30: 0.3332026-05-31: 0.3352026-06-01: 0.335 2026-05-21 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kuhnel, Joel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 39%39%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kuhnel, Joel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 52.2%Cutter: 24.2%Changeup: 7.9%Slider: 7.4%4-Seam Fastball: 5.9%Curveball: 2.5% MIX SI 52%FC 24%CH 8%SL 7%FF 6%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kuhnel, Joel · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.0SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.4FCCH: HB -0.7, IVB 2.4CHSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.9SLFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.4FFCU: HB 0.0, IVB 3.7CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 52.8% 163 99 limited sample
FC 23.3% 72 100 limited sample
CH 8.7% 27 104 limited sample
SL 7.8% 24 97 limited sample
FB 5.8% 18 91 limited sample
CB 1.6% 5 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 40%, Curveball 30%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.38
K% Δ-0.106
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.5----
Batters Faced125----
K%22.0%7.6% to 25.3%+/- 8.8%
BB%6.2%0.8% to 9.1%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%23.9%13.7% to 28.3%+/- 7.3%
HR/91.520.32 to 2.25+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.2940.178 to 0.375+/- 0.099
Barrel% Allowed6.8%1.7% to 9.9%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.841.15 to 6.10+/- 2.47
FIP3.792.15 to 5.04+/- 1.45
WHIP1.2230.658 to 1.642+/- 0.492
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%10.1%
BB%2.8%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHH

267 career BF

xwOBA0.195
K%10.9%
BB%2.2%
Barrel4.0%