Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Akin, Keegan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
20.8% to 32.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal4 metrics
82
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace5.68
ERA rolling p504.12
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.91 3.48 4.12 4.75 5.32
FIP
3.38 3.74 4.15 4.56 4.92
K%
18.4% 20.3% 22.5% 24.6% 26.6%
BB%
5.9% 6.9% 8.0% 9.1% 10.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
25
ERA5.68
15
BB%7.8%
64
K%15.5%
8 -54 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.298
66
Barrel allowed5.7%
79 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed28.7%
96
Whiff%17.3%
8 -57 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+107
81
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Slider Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Akin, Keegan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.298 2026-07-05: 0.2982026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.2982026-07-08: 0.2982026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2982026-07-11: 0.2982026-07-12: 0.2982026-07-13: 0.2982026-07-14: 0.2982026-07-15: 0.2982026-07-16: 0.298 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Akin, Keegan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Akin, Keegan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.2%Changeup: 25.8%Slider: 24.9% FF49% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 49%CH 26%SL 25% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Akin, Keegan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.7 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphSlider: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 52.4% 132 106 limited sample
CH 23.8% 60 107 limited sample
SL 23.8% 60 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 29%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.16
K% Δ-0.089
Sample26.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.6----
Batters Faced280----
K%24.4%20.8% to 32.2%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.7%6.2% to 11.5%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%25.0%21.3% to 29.7%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.441.01 to 2.11+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3050.253 to 0.330+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.2% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.521.93 to 5.16+/- 1.61
FIP4.113.03 to 5.09+/- 1.03
WHIP1.2400.983 to 1.510+/- 0.263
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

592 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%26.5%
BB%7.2%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

1063 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%24.4%
BB%8.4%
Barrel8.6%