Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Bachar, Lake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.6% K%
Range
18.7% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.04
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.31 2.97 3.70 4.43 5.09
FIP
2.82 3.49 4.22 4.96 5.62
K%
21.3% 23.3% 25.6% 27.9% 30.0%
BB%
6.1% 7.3% 8.6% 9.9% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
57 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
43
Fastball velo94.9
62
Hard-hit allowed42.5%
31
K%28.3%
85 +21 vs proj
Whiff%33.0%
95 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.284
75 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachar, Lake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2642026-05-19: 0.2642026-05-21: 0.2742026-05-23: 0.2742026-05-24: 0.2742026-05-25: 0.2742026-05-26: 0.2652026-05-28: 0.2652026-05-29: 0.2652026-05-30: 0.2652026-05-31: 0.2652026-06-01: 0.284 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachar, Lake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 42%42%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.7%Slider: 26.2%Sweeper: 19.0%Split-Finger: 12.3%Curveball: 9.8% MIX FF 33%SL 26%ST 19%FS 12%CU 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.0FFSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.5SLST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.1STFS: HB -0.3, IVB 2.8FSCU: HB 0.1, IVB 3.7CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 50.8% 189 104 limited sample
FB 38.7% 144 107 limited sample
CB 10.5% 39 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 28%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.46
K% Δ+0.038
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.5----
Batters Faced263----
K%24.6%18.7% to 30.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.3%6.6% to 13.2%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.4%22.9% to 32.6%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.250.54 to 2.27+/- 0.87
xwOBA Against0.3120.268 to 0.360+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.7% to 14.6%+/- 4.9%
ERA4.502.52 to 6.24+/- 1.86
FIP4.042.74 to 6.49+/- 1.87
WHIP1.3631.011 to 1.691+/- 0.340
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

173 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%21.5%
BB%11.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

190 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%22.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel12.7%