Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Bachar, Lake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
18.7% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace3.49
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight60%
ERA
2.37 3.00 3.70 4.41 5.04
FIP
2.95 3.59 4.30 5.01 5.65
K%
22.1% 23.5% 25.1% 26.7% 28.1%
BB%
7.7% 8.6% 9.6% 10.5% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
82
ERA3.49
70
BB%10.1%
35
K%25.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.289
77 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.7%
46
Fastball velo94.3
48
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
81
Whiff%27.9%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Slider Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Sinker Stuff+67
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachar, Lake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.289 2026-09-13: 0.2902026-09-14: 0.2902026-09-18: 0.2932026-09-19: 0.2932026-09-20: 0.2922026-09-21: 0.2902026-09-22: 0.2902026-09-23: 0.2902026-09-24: 0.2892026-09-25: 0.2892026-09-26: 0.2892026-09-27: 0.289 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachar, Lake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 30.4%Slider: 22.6%Curveball: 19.8%Sweeper: 15.5%Split-Finger: 7.2%Sinker: 4.3% FF30% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 30%SL 23%CU 20%ST 16%FS 7%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.8 mphSL90 mphCurveball: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 86.4 mphCU86 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.7 mphST87 mphSplit-Finger: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.3 mphFS84 mphSinker: 4% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 41.5% 301 104 qualified
FB 34.6% 251 105 qualified
CB 22.2% 161 104 limited sample
SI 1.7% 12 67 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 28%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.00
K% Δ+0.011
Sample85.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.2----
Batters Faced266----
K%24.5%18.7% to 30.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.3%6.6% to 13.2%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.4%22.9% to 32.6%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.230.53 to 2.24+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3110.267 to 0.359+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.7% to 14.6%+/- 4.9%
ERA4.492.52 to 6.23+/- 1.85
FIP4.042.74 to 6.49+/- 1.87
WHIP1.3771.021 to 1.707+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

173 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%21.5%
BB%11.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

190 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%22.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel12.7%