Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Bachar, Lake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
18.7% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal4 metrics
76
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace3.58
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.50 3.13 3.82 4.51 5.14
FIP
2.64 3.26 3.96 4.66 5.29
K%
22.0% 23.7% 25.7% 27.6% 29.3%
BB%
6.8% 7.8% 8.9% 10.0% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
85
ERA3.58
60
BB%9.1%
44
K%27.3%
80 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.279
84 +32 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
38
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed39.5%
46
Whiff%30.2%
92
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+106
97
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+104
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bachar, Lake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2832026-07-13: 0.2832026-07-14: 0.2792026-07-15: 0.2792026-07-16: 0.2792026-07-17: 0.2792026-07-18: 0.279 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bachar, Lake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.0%Slider: 23.1%Sweeper: 17.5%Curveball: 13.2%Split-Finger: 10.3%Sinker: 3.9% FF32% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SL 23%ST 18%CU 13%FS 10%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bachar, Lake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mphSweeper: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.4 mphST86 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 86.2 mphCU86 mphSplit-Finger: 10% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.0 mphFS84 mphSinker: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 50.4% 190 104 limited sample
FB 38.7% 146 107 limited sample
CB 10.9% 41 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Sweeper 28%, Slider 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.92
K% Δ+0.027
Sample51.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.3----
Batters Faced266----
K%24.5%18.7% to 30.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.3%6.6% to 13.2%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%27.4%22.9% to 32.6%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.250.54 to 2.27+/- 0.87
xwOBA Against0.3120.268 to 0.360+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.7% to 14.6%+/- 4.9%
ERA4.502.52 to 6.24+/- 1.86
FIP4.042.74 to 6.49+/- 1.87
WHIP1.3631.011 to 1.691+/- 0.340
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

173 career BF

xwOBA0.300
K%21.5%
BB%11.8%
Barrel9.9%
vs RHH

190 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%22.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel12.7%