Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Nelson, Ryne

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.3% K%
Range
17.5% to 26.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.35
ERA current pace4.89
ERA rolling p504.69
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.67 4.15 4.69 5.22 5.71
FIP
4.06 4.33 4.64 4.95 5.23
K%
17.1% 18.2% 19.4% 20.6% 21.7%
BB%
5.3% 5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
68
ERA4.89
29
BB%6.2%
87
K%19.1%
30
xwOBA allowed0.351
14 -29 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
10 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed44.0%
15
Whiff%17.9%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+111
97
Mithrandir Stuff+109
97
Slider Stuff+103
64
Curveball Stuff+100
23
Cutter Stuff+102
61
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nelson, Ryne · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-09-12: 0.3492026-09-13: 0.3492026-09-14: 0.3492026-09-18: 0.3522026-09-19: 0.3522026-09-20: 0.3522026-09-21: 0.3512026-09-22: 0.3512026-09-23: 0.3512026-09-24: 0.3512026-09-25: 0.3512026-09-26: 0.351 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nelson, Ryne · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.7%Slider: 20.4%Cutter: 9.4%Curveball: 9.3%Sinker: 3.2% FF58% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 58%SL 20%FC 9%CU 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nelson, Ryne · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mphSlider: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.5 mphSL89 mphCutter: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.9 mphFC93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 80.8 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.4% 654 111 qualified
SL 20.8% 237 103 qualified
FC 9.3% 106 102 limited sample
CB 8.8% 100 100 limited sample
SI 3.7% 42 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 62%, Slider 14%, Curveball 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.70
K% Δ-0.012
Sample94.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.4----
Batters Faced326----
K%20.3%17.5% to 26.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%6.7%5.1% to 9.3%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%18.6%16.3% to 22.8%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.350.88 to 1.98+/- 0.55
xwOBA Against0.3190.288 to 0.348+/- 0.030
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.8% to 12.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.193.15 to 5.94+/- 1.40
FIP4.073.19 to 4.80+/- 0.80
WHIP1.3211.089 to 1.537+/- 0.224
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1031 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%17.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

1082 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%20.3%
BB%5.7%
Barrel9.2%