Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Hurt, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.6% K%
Range
7.9% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
62
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal4 metrics
77
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason2.92
ERA current pace4.22
ERA rolling p503.30
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.55 2.38 3.30 4.22 5.04
FIP
1.13 2.12 3.21 4.31 5.29
K%
16.6% 19.6% 23.0% 26.4% 29.5%
BB%
3.8% 5.3% 6.8% 8.4% 9.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
65
ERA4.22
40
BB%10.2%
32 -27 vs proj
K%29.6%
91 +42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.278
82 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
79 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
65
Whiff%34.7%
98 +62 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Changeup Stuff+112
98
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Slider Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hurt, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.278 2026-06-05: 0.2612026-06-06: 0.2612026-06-07: 0.2612026-06-08: 0.2512026-06-09: 0.2512026-06-10: 0.2512026-06-11: 0.2512026-06-12: 0.2812026-06-13: 0.2812026-06-14: 0.2812026-06-15: 0.2812026-06-16: 0.278 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hurt, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 35%35%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurt, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.7%Changeup: 34.0%Slider: 8.3% FF58% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 58%CH 34%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hurt, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 58% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.8 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.8% 150 105 limited sample
CH 36.0% 95 112 limited sample
SL 7.2% 19 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.66
K% Δ+0.070
Sample23.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.5----
Batters Faced265----
K%22.6%7.9% to 25.4%+/- 8.8%
BB%8.1%0.7% to 8.6%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%21.3%11.2% to 30.2%+/- 9.5%
HR/91.440.05 to 1.30+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3280.128 to 0.383+/- 0.127
Barrel% Allowed8.0%0.8% to 9.8%+/- 4.5%
ERA3.560.27 to 4.82+/- 2.28
FIP4.310.39 to 5.81+/- 2.71
WHIP1.2710.441 to 1.611+/- 0.585
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

19 career BF

xwOBA0.134
K%9.8%
BB%1.2%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHH

19 career BF

xwOBA0.127
K%10.6%
BB%0.9%
Barrel2.7%