Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

May, Dustin

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.4% K%
Range
16.7% to 26.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal7 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.13
ERA current pace4.55
ERA rolling p504.40
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.28 3.81 4.40 4.98 5.51
FIP
2.79 3.16 3.58 3.99 4.36
K%
19.7% 20.9% 22.2% 23.5% 24.6%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
57
ERA4.55
36
BB%7.0%
75 +26 vs proj
K%22.3%
49
xwOBA allowed0.301
65 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
74 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed46.4%
8
Whiff%20.2%
27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+106
85
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Slider Stuff+105
69
Changeup Stuff+104
61
Curveball Stuff+100
21
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed May, Dustin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-07-05: 0.3052026-07-06: 0.3052026-07-07: 0.3052026-07-08: 0.3022026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.301 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile May, Dustin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.2%Cutter: 22.1%Sweeper: 19.5%Sinker: 18.1%Changeup: 7.1%Curveball: 7.0% FF26% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 26%FC 22%ST 19%SI 18%CH 7%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphFC93 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphSinker: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.5 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 83.3 mphCU83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphPO96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.0% 275 105 qualified
FC 23.2% 246 106 qualified
SL 19.2% 203 105 qualified
SI 17.8% 189 106 limited sample
CB 7.1% 75 100 limited sample
CH 6.7% 71 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 34%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.19
K% Δ+0.019
Sample95.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.4----
Batters Faced308----
K%20.4%16.7% to 26.8%+/- 5.0%
BB%8.6%6.3% to 11.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%18.7%15.0% to 23.3%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.270.61 to 1.87+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3190.281 to 0.376+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.0% to 11.9%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.363.15 to 6.20+/- 1.53
FIP4.373.20 to 5.35+/- 1.08
WHIP1.3971.100 to 1.616+/- 0.258
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

813 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%19.2%
BB%10.1%
Barrel8.7%
vs RHH

764 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%17.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.8%