Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 39%, Sinker 34%, 4-Seam Fastball 17%.
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026
May, Dustin
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team STL
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.13 |
| ERA current pace | 4.57 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.37 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
ERA
3.29
3.80
4.37
4.94
5.45
FIP
3.05
3.41
3.82
4.22
4.58
K%
17.7%
19.1%
20.6%
22.1%
23.4%
BB%
5.9%
6.6%
7.5%
8.3%
9.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.5%
81
+29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72
+29 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
85
Hard-hit allowed48.7%
5
K%19.4%
28
Whiff%19.6%
21
xwOBA allowed0.311
53
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+106
79
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
7Pitches
2026Season
25%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 25.5% | 244 | 105 | qualified |
| FC | 23.7% | 227 | 105 | qualified |
| SL | 19.2% | 184 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 17.1% | 164 | 106 | limited sample |
| CB | 7.5% | 72 | 100 | limited sample |
| CH | 7.0% | 67 | 103 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.21 |
| K% Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 63.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 70.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 309 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.4% | 16.7% to 26.8% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.3% to 11.6% | +/- 2.6% |
| Whiff% | 18.7% | 15.0% to 23.3% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.61 to 1.87 | +/- 0.63 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.319 | 0.281 to 0.376 | +/- 0.048 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 6.0% to 11.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.36 | 3.15 to 6.20 | +/- 1.53 |
| FIP | 4.37 | 3.20 to 5.35 | +/- 1.08 |
| WHIP | 1.397 | 1.100 to 1.616 | +/- 0.258 |
vs LHH
813 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.311 |
| K% | 19.2% |
| BB% | 10.1% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |
vs RHH
764 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |