Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Hall, Dl

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
16.4% to 26.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal6 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace2.03
ERA rolling p503.32
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.23 2.75 3.32 3.89 4.40
FIP
2.94 3.39 3.88 4.37 4.82
K%
19.5% 21.2% 23.1% 25.0% 26.7%
BB%
9.5% 10.5% 11.7% 12.8% 13.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
66
ERA2.03
96
BB%16.4%
1 -39 vs proj
K%25.3%
70 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
57
Barrel allowed6.1%
74 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed29.3%
95
Whiff%27.3%
81 +41 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Changeup Stuff+101
45
Curveball Stuff+104
76
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hall, Dl · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.307 2026-07-05: 0.3072026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.3072026-07-08: 0.3072026-07-09: 0.3072026-07-10: 0.3072026-07-11: 0.3072026-07-12: 0.3072026-07-13: 0.3072026-07-14: 0.3072026-07-15: 0.3072026-07-16: 0.307 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hall, Dl · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hall, Dl · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.8%Changeup: 17.9%Curveball: 15.1%4-Seam Fastball: 11.3%Sweeper: 10.2%Slider: 6.6% SI37% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 37%CH 18%CU 15%FF 11%ST 10%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hall, Dl · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 37% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.8 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 80.6 mphCU81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.1 mphST84 mphSlider: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphCutter: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.1 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 37.4% 188 96 limited sample
SL 18.1% 91 102 limited sample
CH 16.9% 85 101 limited sample
CB 14.5% 73 104 limited sample
FB 12.1% 61 90 limited sample
FC 1.0% 5 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 19%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.07
K% Δ+0.043
Sample35.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.7----
Batters Faced272----
K%21.0%16.4% to 26.5%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.4%7.1% to 12.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.7%17.9% to 26.5%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.220.46 to 1.74+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3170.259 to 0.333+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.4% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.102.68 to 5.66+/- 1.49
FIP3.972.95 to 5.52+/- 1.29
WHIP1.3181.042 to 1.554+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%20.4%
BB%9.1%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

377 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%19.0%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%