Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Hall, Dl

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.0% K%
Range
16.4% to 26.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace2.55
ERA rolling p503.56
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.46 2.98 3.56 4.14 4.67
FIP
2.93 3.38 3.88 4.38 4.83
K%
19.8% 21.5% 23.5% 25.5% 27.2%
BB%
9.2% 10.3% 11.5% 12.6% 13.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%16.5%
2 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
59
Fastball velo94.7
56
Hard-hit allowed32.9%
84
K%26.8%
79 +39 vs proj
Whiff%26.9%
77 +37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.305
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hall, Dl · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3012026-05-19: 0.2992026-05-21: 0.2992026-05-23: 0.2952026-05-24: 0.3072026-05-25: 0.3062026-05-26: 0.3062026-05-28: 0.3062026-05-29: 0.3062026-05-30: 0.3062026-05-31: 0.3052026-06-01: 0.305 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hall, Dl · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hall, Dl · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.6%Changeup: 19.4%Curveball: 15.7%4-Seam Fastball: 10.4%Sweeper: 10.2%Slider: 5.2% MIX SI 37%CH 19%CU 16%FF 10%ST 10%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hall, Dl · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.2, IVB 1.7SICH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.6CHCU: HB 0.7, IVB 4.6CUFF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.3FFST: HB -1.3, IVB 3.2STSL: HB -0.5, IVB 3.2SLFC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.2FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.9% 161 94 limited sample
CH 18.6% 81 103 limited sample
SL 17.0% 74 102 limited sample
CB 15.1% 66 104 limited sample
FB 11.2% 49 91 limited sample
FC 1.1% 5 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 19%, Cutter 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.55
K% Δ+0.058
Sample30.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings63.0----
Batters Faced273----
K%21.0%16.4% to 26.5%+/- 5.0%
BB%9.4%7.1% to 12.4%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%21.7%17.9% to 26.5%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.220.46 to 1.74+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3170.259 to 0.333+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.4% to 10.7%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.102.68 to 5.66+/- 1.49
FIP3.972.95 to 5.52+/- 1.29
WHIP1.3181.042 to 1.554+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

193 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%20.4%
BB%9.1%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

377 career BF

xwOBA0.279
K%19.0%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%