Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Gore, MacKenzie

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
25.7% K%
Range
21.4% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.01
ERA current pace4.63
ERA rolling p504.42
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.25 3.81 4.42 5.04 5.60
FIP
3.09 3.39 3.73 4.06 4.36
K%
23.0% 24.1% 25.3% 26.5% 27.6%
BB%
7.7% 8.3% 9.0% 9.7% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
60
ERA4.63
33
BB%9.2%
42
K%25.2%
69
xwOBA allowed0.306
59
Barrel allowed8.3%
40
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed45.2%
12
Whiff%23.4%
53 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+102
56
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Changeup Stuff+98
23
Cutter Stuff+100
31
Sinker Stuff+96
14
Slider Stuff+99
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gore, MacKenzie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-07-05: 0.3052026-07-06: 0.3052026-07-07: 0.3052026-07-08: 0.3052026-07-09: 0.3052026-07-10: 0.3092026-07-11: 0.3092026-07-12: 0.3092026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3062026-07-15: 0.3062026-07-16: 0.306 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gore, MacKenzie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gore, MacKenzie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.8%Curveball: 21.4%Changeup: 11.0%Cutter: 9.0%Slider: 9.0%Sinker: 4.9% FF45% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 45%CU 21%CH 11%FC 9%SL 9%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gore, MacKenzie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 21% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.8 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 86.7 mphCH87 mphCutter: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.0 mphFC90 mphSlider: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphSinker: 5% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.6% 555 105 qualified
CB 21.0% 261 102 qualified
CH 11.5% 143 98 limited sample
SL 9.1% 113 99 limited sample
FC 8.8% 109 100 limited sample
SI 5.1% 63 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Curveball 24%, Slider 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.64
K% Δ-0.005
Sample113.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.5----
Batters Faced648----
K%25.7%21.4% to 31.1%+/- 4.8%
BB%8.6%6.7% to 11.2%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%26.6%23.0% to 31.6%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.220.83 to 1.95+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3040.279 to 0.345+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.7% to 12.4%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.992.54 to 5.69+/- 1.57
FIP3.912.88 to 4.59+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2961.104 to 1.676+/- 0.286
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

636 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%25.0%
BB%8.8%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

1876 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%24.0%
BB%8.6%
Barrel9.4%