Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Cutter 20%, Slider 17%.
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026
Myers, Tobias
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team NYM
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
51
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.90 |
| ERA current pace | 4.05 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.96 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
ERA
3.04
3.48
3.96
4.45
4.88
FIP
4.11
4.35
4.62
4.89
5.14
K%
17.6%
19.0%
20.6%
22.2%
23.6%
BB%
5.5%
6.4%
7.3%
8.2%
9.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
54
ERA4.05
46
BB%8.1%
59
K%20.0%
34
xwOBA allowed0.299
64
+34 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
70
+32 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
24
Hard-hit allowed43.8%
22
Whiff%18.1%
13
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+110
93
Cutter Stuff+99
22
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Slider Stuff+96
16
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
50%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 64.8% | 252 | 110 | qualified |
| SL | 19.5% | 76 | 96 | limited sample |
| FC | 15.7% | 61 | 99 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.40 |
| K% Δ | -0.006 |
| Sample | 37.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 72.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 313 | -- | -- |
| K% | 20.6% | 17.5% to 25.8% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 4.9% to 9.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 19.3% | 17.3% to 24.5% | +/- 3.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.32 | 0.89 to 2.04 | +/- 0.58 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.334 | 0.292 to 0.360 | +/- 0.034 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.7% to 11.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.45 | 2.61 to 5.16 | +/- 1.28 |
| FIP | 4.19 | 3.37 to 4.80 | +/- 0.72 |
| WHIP | 1.330 | 1.096 to 1.593 | +/- 0.248 |
vs LHH
402 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |
vs RHH
456 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |