Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PIT · 2026

Murdock, Noah

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.3% K%
Range
12.3% to 29.0%
Live Δ
--
Team PIT Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
10
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal1 metrics
10
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason9.03
ERA current pace0.00
ERA rolling p508.27
Observed weight8%
ERA
4.62 6.35 8.27 10.20 11.93
FIP
2.75 3.41 4.14 4.88 5.54
K%
13.8% 17.5% 21.5% 25.6% 29.3%
BB%
9.1% 11.4% 13.9% 16.4% 18.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+93
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2025Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Murdock, Noah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 40%40%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 64%64% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murdock, Noah · 2025 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.0%Cutter: 22.7%Sweeper: 19.6%Split-Finger: 0.5%Pitch Out: 0.2% SI57% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 57%FC 23%ST 20%FS 0%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Murdock, Noah · 2025 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mphCutter: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.8 mphFS87 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.3 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 47.4% 9 105 limited sample
CB 36.8% 7 93 limited sample
FC 10.5% 2 75 limited sample
SL 5.3% 1 69 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 57%, Cutter 23%, Sweeper 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings30.4----
Batters Faced159----
K%23.3%12.3% to 29.0%+/- 8.4%
BB%12.1%8.3% to 18.6%+/- 5.2%
Whiff%23.1%16.4% to 28.3%+/- 5.9%
HR/90.940.00 to 1.91+/- 0.96
xwOBA Against0.3280.221 to 0.406+/- 0.093
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.1% to 11.0%+/- 4.0%
ERA7.385.09 to 13.08+/- 3.99
FIP3.632.00 to 5.02+/- 1.51
WHIP1.6251.388 to 2.284+/- 0.448
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

42 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%14.5%
BB%15.1%
Barrel5.6%
vs RHH

79 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%15.2%
BB%12.5%
Barrel5.6%