Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Knuckle Curve 23%, Changeup 16%.
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026
Gallen, Zac
Breaking-ball driven starter profile
Team AZ
Archetype Breaking-ball attack
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.35 |
| ERA current pace | 4.80 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.59 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
ERA
3.68
4.12
4.59
5.07
5.51
FIP
4.33
4.59
4.89
5.19
5.45
K%
15.6%
16.9%
18.3%
19.7%
20.9%
BB%
5.9%
6.5%
7.3%
8.0%
8.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
73
Barrel allowed11.5%
12
-26 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed46.3%
11
K%14.9%
7
-33 vs proj
Whiff%17.7%
11
-21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.355
13
-26 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
57
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 37.4% | 349 | 104 | qualified |
| SL | 24.5% | 229 | 104 | qualified |
| CB | 20.0% | 187 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 12.6% | 118 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 5.4% | 50 | 95 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +0.59 |
| K% Δ | -0.062 |
| Sample | 62.3 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 146.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 617 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.1% | 18.3% to 27.9% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 7.9% | 5.9% to 10.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Whiff% | 21.0% | 18.9% to 26.5% | +/- 3.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.35 | 0.85 to 1.91 | +/- 0.53 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.328 | 0.285 to 0.337 | +/- 0.026 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 6.8% to 12.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| ERA | 4.21 | 3.33 to 5.90 | +/- 1.28 |
| FIP | 4.20 | 2.96 to 4.55 | +/- 0.79 |
| WHIP | 1.341 | 1.076 to 1.522 | +/- 0.223 |
vs LHH
2180 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 20.5% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 8.3% |
vs RHH
2279 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 9.4% |