Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Erceg, Lucas

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
17.3% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
11
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal6 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.57
ERA current pace5.96
ERA rolling p504.77
Observed weight50%
ERA
3.32 4.01 4.77 5.53 6.22
FIP
3.46 3.87 4.32 4.78 5.19
K%
15.7% 17.4% 19.3% 21.2% 23.0%
BB%
9.0% 10.1% 11.3% 12.5% 13.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.91
1
ERA5.96
12
BB%13.6%
8 -42 vs proj
K%15.3%
7 -43 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.334
28 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.8%
88 +45 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
88
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%18.9%
19 -57 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Changeup Stuff+101
46
Cutter Stuff+86
1
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Sinker Stuff+104
63
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Erceg, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.334 2026-09-12: 0.3402026-09-13: 0.3402026-09-14: 0.3402026-09-18: 0.3382026-09-19: 0.3362026-09-20: 0.3362026-09-21: 0.3362026-09-22: 0.3362026-09-23: 0.3362026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.334 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Erceg, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.7%Slider: 28.5%Sinker: 27.6%Changeup: 13.6%Cutter: 1.6% FF29% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 29%SL 28%SI 28%CH 14%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.6 mphSL85 mphSinker: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.6 mphFC95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.5% 156 105 limited sample
SL 27.9% 143 96 limited sample
SI 25.8% 132 104 limited sample
CH 13.7% 70 101 limited sample
FC 2.1% 11 86 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Slider 29%, Sinker 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.22
K% Δ-0.069
Sample48.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.5----
Batters Faced166----
K%22.2%17.3% to 30.6%+/- 6.6%
BB%8.8%5.0% to 12.3%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%26.1%20.7% to 32.2%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.000.34 to 1.71+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3150.249 to 0.361+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed7.9%4.2% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.741.93 to 6.02+/- 2.05
FIP3.782.48 to 4.92+/- 1.22
WHIP1.2870.986 to 1.674+/- 0.344
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

384 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%21.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

447 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%21.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.8%