Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Winn, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.2% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace5.59
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight30%
ERA
2.81 3.59 4.45 5.32 6.10
FIP
2.28 2.98 3.75 4.53 5.23
K%
18.7% 20.9% 23.3% 25.7% 27.8%
BB%
5.6% 7.0% 8.5% 10.0% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
36
Barrel allowed4.5%
86 +52 vs proj
Fastball velo94.8
59
Hard-hit allowed50.7%
2
K%25.0%
69 +27 vs proj
Whiff%29.9%
88 +45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
25 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Winn, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3412026-05-19: 0.3412026-05-21: 0.3312026-05-23: 0.3312026-05-24: 0.3412026-05-25: 0.3412026-05-26: 0.3412026-05-28: 0.3412026-05-29: 0.3412026-05-30: 0.3412026-05-31: 0.3412026-06-01: 0.341 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Winn, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.5%Cutter: 28.9%Slider: 20.1%Split-Finger: 15.0%Sinker: 4.6% MIX FF 31%FC 29%SL 20%FS 15%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.5SLFS: HB -0.8, IVB 2.8FSSI: HB 1.2, IVB 1.8SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 110 104 limited sample
FC 33.2% 96 105 limited sample
SL 24.9% 72 96 limited sample
SI 3.8% 11 123 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.291 vs 0.268 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 21%, Slider 19%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.37
K% Δ+0.037
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.5----
Batters Faced143----
K%21.3%16.2% to 28.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%8.7%5.4% to 12.8%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.1%19.1% to 28.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.190.18 to 1.68+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3270.253 to 0.365+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed9.0%3.7% to 14.0%+/- 5.1%
ERA4.221.39 to 5.71+/- 2.16
FIP4.052.71 to 6.59+/- 1.94
WHIP1.2330.806 to 1.536+/- 0.365
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

95 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%17.6%
BB%9.5%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%19.6%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.2%