Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Winn, Cole

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.3% K%
Range
16.2% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace5.94
ERA rolling p504.75
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.20 3.93 4.75 5.57 6.31
FIP
2.43 3.09 3.83 4.56 5.23
K%
18.5% 20.4% 22.5% 24.6% 26.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.7% 8.0% 9.3% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
34
ERA5.94
12
BB%8.1%
59
K%22.4%
49
xwOBA allowed0.329
34
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +51 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
59
Hard-hit allowed44.1%
16
Whiff%27.1%
79 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+105
76
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Sinker Stuff+122
100
Slider Stuff+98
26
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Winn, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.329 2026-07-06: 0.3402026-07-07: 0.3282026-07-08: 0.3282026-07-09: 0.3272026-07-10: 0.3272026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3292026-07-15: 0.3292026-07-16: 0.3292026-07-17: 0.329 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Winn, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 30.6%4-Seam Fastball: 30.1%Slider: 21.5%Split-Finger: 14.6%Sinker: 3.0%Curveball: 0.2% FC31% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 31%FF 30%SL 21%FS 15%SI 3%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Winn, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphSplit-Finger: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.1 mphFS87 mphSinker: 3% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.1 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.6% 123 105 limited sample
FC 33.9% 111 105 limited sample
SL 25.1% 82 98 limited sample
SI 3.4% 11 122 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.291 vs 0.268 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 21%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.78
K% Δ+0.011
Sample36.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.0----
Batters Faced140----
K%21.3%16.2% to 28.3%+/- 6.0%
BB%8.7%5.4% to 12.8%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.1%19.1% to 28.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.190.18 to 1.68+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3270.253 to 0.365+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed9.0%3.7% to 14.0%+/- 5.1%
ERA4.161.39 to 5.71+/- 2.16
FIP4.052.71 to 6.59+/- 1.94
WHIP1.2310.806 to 1.536+/- 0.365
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

95 career BF

xwOBA0.291
K%17.6%
BB%9.5%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%19.6%
BB%6.3%
Barrel9.2%