Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

King, John

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
15.3% K%
Range
10.9% to 22.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace2.22
ERA rolling p503.17
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.59 2.34 3.17 4.00 4.75
FIP
3.10 3.57 4.10 4.62 5.10
K%
13.5% 15.5% 17.7% 19.8% 21.8%
BB%
4.8% 5.9% 7.2% 8.5% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.74
98
ERA2.22
88
BB%7.8%
64
K%19.8%
32 +24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.282
80 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
51
Fastball velo90.5
5
Hard-hit allowed31.6%
90
Whiff%19.7%
23
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Changeup Stuff+95
12
Curveball Stuff+108
100
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+94
11
Slider Stuff+107
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, John · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.282 2026-06-05: 0.2802026-06-06: 0.2802026-06-07: 0.2802026-06-08: 0.2832026-06-09: 0.2832026-06-10: 0.2832026-06-11: 0.2832026-06-12: 0.2832026-06-13: 0.2832026-06-14: 0.2762026-06-15: 0.2822026-06-16: 0.282 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, John · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, John · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.7%Slider: 23.3%Changeup: 19.3%Sweeper: 12.9%Curveball: 10.0%4-Seam Fastball: 2.9% SI32% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 32%SL 23%CH 19%ST 13%CU 10%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, John · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.5 mphSI91 mphSlider: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.3 mphSL82 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 81.4 mphST81 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 78.9 mphCU79 mph4-Seam Fastball: 3% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFF90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.3% 128 107 limited sample
SI 31.1% 104 94 limited sample
CH 19.5% 65 95 limited sample
CB 8.4% 28 108 limited sample
FB 2.7% 9 83 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.270 vs 0.304 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 60%, Changeup 19%, Slider 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.22
K% Δ+0.045
Sample31.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.0----
Batters Faced165----
K%15.3%10.9% to 22.2%+/- 5.7%
BB%6.7%3.9% to 10.5%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%18.5%15.2% to 23.6%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.300.48 to 2.16+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3240.274 to 0.381+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.0% to 9.7%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.442.08 to 6.30+/- 2.11
FIP4.273.06 to 5.73+/- 1.34
WHIP1.4211.083 to 1.822+/- 0.369
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

442 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%13.8%
BB%4.6%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHH

729 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%13.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel5.5%