Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Nance, Tommy

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
14.4% to 28.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 35 Status IL-15
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.60
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p503.67
Observed weight26%
ERA
2.03 2.81 3.67 4.53 5.30
FIP
2.70 2.90 3.13 3.36 3.56
K%
17.9% 20.5% 23.4% 26.2% 28.8%
BB%
5.3% 6.7% 8.3% 9.9% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
40
Barrel allowed3.8%
90 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo94.7
57
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
77
K%29.1%
88 +46 vs proj
Whiff%24.8%
63 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.292
69 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nance, Tommy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2932026-05-19: 0.2932026-05-21: 0.2922026-05-23: 0.2922026-05-24: 0.2922026-05-25: 0.2922026-05-26: 0.2922026-05-28: 0.2922026-05-29: 0.2922026-05-30: 0.2922026-05-31: 0.2922026-06-01: 0.292 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nance, Tommy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 22%22%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nance, Tommy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 36.4%Slider: 33.8%Sinker: 29.9% MIX CU 36%SL 34%SI 30% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nance, Tommy · 2026 arsenal snapshot CU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.4CUSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.9SLSI: HB 0.0, IVB 1.7SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 36.4% 112 102 limited sample
SL 33.8% 104 107 limited sample
SI 29.9% 92 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 40%, Curveball 31%, Sinker 29%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ+0.079
Sample20.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.9----
Batters Faced143----
K%21.2%14.4% to 28.5%+/- 7.1%
BB%8.6%4.9% to 12.6%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%20.7%17.7% to 28.8%+/- 5.5%
HR/90.910.00 to 1.55+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3300.261 to 0.376+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed8.3%3.3% to 14.0%+/- 5.4%
ERA4.321.50 to 5.68+/- 2.09
FIP3.782.48 to 3.58+/- 0.55
WHIP1.2171.042 to 1.642+/- 0.300
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

237 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%17.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

330 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%17.3%
BB%5.8%
Barrel9.7%