Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Doval, Camilo

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
19.4% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
54
Arsenal4 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace5.09
ERA rolling p504.21
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.52 3.32 4.21 5.10 5.90
FIP
2.53 3.16 3.85 4.54 5.17
K%
19.8% 22.1% 24.6% 27.2% 29.5%
BB%
7.1% 8.4% 10.0% 11.5% 12.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
37
ERA5.09
23
BB%8.0%
60 +38 vs proj
K%22.2%
48 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.276
86 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
97
Hard-hit allowed50.0%
2
Whiff%23.3%
53 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Slider Stuff+103
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Doval, Camilo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.276 2026-07-05: 0.2682026-07-06: 0.2672026-07-07: 0.2712026-07-08: 0.2712026-07-09: 0.2712026-07-10: 0.2712026-07-11: 0.2762026-07-12: 0.2762026-07-13: 0.2762026-07-14: 0.2762026-07-15: 0.2762026-07-16: 0.276 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Doval, Camilo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 43%43%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Doval, Camilo · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 43.8%Cutter: 28.8%Slider: 23.9%Changeup: 3.5% SI44% · 99 mphprimary pitch SI 44%FC 29%SL 24%CH 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Doval, Camilo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 44% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 98.6 mphSI99 mphCutter: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 98.7 mphFC99 mphSlider: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.8 mphSL89 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 94.5 mphCH94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 43.2% 166 103 limited sample
FC 33.6% 129 101 limited sample
SL 21.6% 83 103 limited sample
CH 1.6% 6 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 48%, Cutter 40%, Sinker 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.48
K% Δ-0.032
Sample36.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.4----
Batters Faced176----
K%25.4%19.4% to 34.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%11.2%7.4% to 16.3%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%28.3%24.4% to 35.9%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.220.32 to 1.85+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3040.230 to 0.363+/- 0.067
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.6% to 11.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.611.80 to 6.50+/- 2.35
FIP3.522.24 to 5.90+/- 1.83
WHIP1.2240.918 to 1.711+/- 0.397
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

624 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%25.6%
BB%13.2%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

686 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%24.5%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.9%