Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Doval, Camilo

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
19.4% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace5.14
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight28%
ERA
2.22 3.08 4.04 4.99 5.85
FIP
2.35 3.02 3.77 4.51 5.18
K%
18.7% 21.4% 24.4% 27.4% 30.1%
BB%
6.3% 7.9% 9.6% 11.4% 13.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.4%
92 +70 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
87 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
93
Hard-hit allowed50.0%
3
K%19.6%
29 -42 vs proj
Whiff%22.5%
45 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.266
87 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

9 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Doval, Camilo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-23: 0.2732026-05-24: 0.2732026-05-25: 0.2732026-05-26: 0.2732026-05-28: 0.2682026-05-29: 0.2682026-05-30: 0.2682026-05-31: 0.2682026-06-01: 0.266 2026-05-23 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Doval, Camilo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 43%43%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 50%50% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Doval, Camilo · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 41.7%Cutter: 36.0%Slider: 21.7%Changeup: 0.6% MIX SI 42%FC 36%SL 22%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Doval, Camilo · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 2.1SIFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.4FCSL: HB -0.2, IVB 3.3SLCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.5CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 43.3% 140 103 limited sample
FC 34.7% 112 101 limited sample
SL 21.4% 69 105 limited sample
CH 0.6% 2 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 48%, Cutter 40%, Sinker 12%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.53
K% Δ-0.058
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.0----
Batters Faced179----
K%25.4%19.4% to 34.6%+/- 7.6%
BB%11.2%7.4% to 16.3%+/- 4.4%
Whiff%28.3%24.4% to 35.9%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.220.32 to 1.85+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3040.230 to 0.363+/- 0.067
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.6% to 11.0%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.611.80 to 6.50+/- 2.35
FIP3.522.24 to 5.90+/- 1.83
WHIP1.2270.918 to 1.711+/- 0.397
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

624 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%25.6%
BB%13.2%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

686 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%24.5%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.9%