Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Morillo, Juan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.8% to 31.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
87
Arsenal5 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.72
ERA current pace2.24
ERA rolling p502.94
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.14 1.99 2.94 3.89 4.74
FIP
2.29 2.73 3.21 3.70 4.14
K%
22.8% 24.5% 26.5% 28.4% 30.2%
BB%
6.6% 7.9% 9.2% 10.5% 11.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
92
ERA2.24
94
BB%8.6%
54
K%28.3%
87 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.243
98 +58 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.3%
92 +41 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
98
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
92
Whiff%26.8%
81 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Changeup Stuff+108
88
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morillo, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.243 2026-09-12: 0.2452026-09-13: 0.2462026-09-14: 0.2462026-09-18: 0.2422026-09-19: 0.2422026-09-20: 0.2422026-09-21: 0.2432026-09-22: 0.2432026-09-23: 0.2422026-09-24: 0.2432026-09-25: 0.2432026-09-26: 0.243 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morillo, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morillo, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.5%Changeup: 21.1%Sinker: 19.0%Slider: 12.3% FF48% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 48%CH 21%SI 19%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morillo, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.6 mphFF99 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.5 mphCH92 mphSinker: 19% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 98.6 mphSI99 mphSlider: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 52.0% 333 108 qualified
CH 20.3% 130 108 limited sample
SI 15.9% 102 103 limited sample
SL 11.7% 75 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 22%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.69
K% Δ+0.055
Sample66.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.0----
Batters Faced149----
K%22.8%17.8% to 31.4%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.4%5.6% to 15.2%+/- 4.8%
Whiff%24.1%18.5% to 29.9%+/- 5.7%
HR/90.810.15 to 1.71+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3210.226 to 0.348+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.1% to 10.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.931.36 to 6.45+/- 2.55
FIP3.682.19 to 4.81+/- 1.31
WHIP1.3821.093 to 1.794+/- 0.350
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

75 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.0%
BB%11.8%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%19.9%
BB%8.3%
Barrel5.6%