Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Morillo, Juan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
17.8% to 31.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
81
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
84
Arsenal5 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.72
ERA current pace2.89
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight41%
ERA
1.55 2.42 3.39 4.35 5.22
FIP
2.44 2.88 3.38 3.87 4.32
K%
22.0% 24.1% 26.4% 28.7% 30.8%
BB%
6.3% 7.7% 9.4% 11.0% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.04
87
ERA2.89
78
BB%8.5%
51
K%29.3%
91 +39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.242
98 +54 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
75 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo98.6
97
Hard-hit allowed32.3%
90
Whiff%28.9%
88 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Changeup Stuff+109
91
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Slider Stuff+103
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morillo, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.242 2026-07-06: 0.2422026-07-07: 0.2422026-07-08: 0.2422026-07-09: 0.2422026-07-10: 0.2452026-07-11: 0.2452026-07-12: 0.2452026-07-13: 0.2412026-07-14: 0.2422026-07-15: 0.2422026-07-16: 0.2422026-07-17: 0.242 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morillo, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morillo, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.9%Changeup: 18.9%Slider: 17.1%Sinker: 15.1% FF49% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 49%CH 19%SL 17%SI 15% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morillo, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.6 mphFF99 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.5 mphCH93 mphSlider: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mphSinker: 15% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 98.6 mphSI99 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.1% 213 105 qualified
CH 18.5% 74 109 limited sample
SL 16.0% 64 103 limited sample
SI 12.5% 50 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 22%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.04
K% Δ+0.065
Sample40.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.6----
Batters Faced151----
K%22.8%17.8% to 31.4%+/- 6.8%
BB%9.4%5.6% to 15.2%+/- 4.8%
Whiff%24.1%18.5% to 29.9%+/- 5.7%
HR/90.810.15 to 1.71+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3210.226 to 0.348+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed7.4%3.1% to 10.6%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.931.36 to 6.45+/- 2.55
FIP3.682.19 to 4.81+/- 1.31
WHIP1.3821.093 to 1.794+/- 0.350
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

75 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%20.0%
BB%11.8%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHH

101 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%19.9%
BB%8.3%
Barrel5.6%