Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Soriano, George

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
16.3% to 31.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace3.32
ERA rolling p503.67
Observed weight43%
ERA
1.75 2.66 3.67 4.69 5.60
FIP
2.54 3.27 4.07 4.88 5.60
K%
18.1% 20.3% 22.8% 25.3% 27.6%
BB%
6.0% 7.3% 8.7% 10.1% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
83
ERA3.32
69
BB%9.0%
44
K%21.9%
46
xwOBA allowed0.310
53
Barrel allowed9.0%
30
Fastball velo96.4
79
Hard-hit allowed41.8%
31
Whiff%28.7%
87 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+108
86
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+102
46
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Slider Stuff+97
18
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, George · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.310 2026-07-05: 0.3252026-07-06: 0.3202026-07-07: 0.3202026-07-08: 0.3202026-07-09: 0.3202026-07-10: 0.3202026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3102026-07-14: 0.3102026-07-15: 0.3102026-07-16: 0.310 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, George · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.7%Changeup: 26.5%Slider: 23.7%Sweeper: 12.1%Sinker: 10.0% FF28% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CH 27%SL 24%ST 12%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.5 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 90.0 mphCH90 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.6 mphST86 mphSinker: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 36.9% 164 97 limited sample
CH 27.9% 124 108 limited sample
FB 24.8% 110 102 limited sample
SI 10.4% 46 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.351 vs 0.313 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 30%, Sinker 20%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.65
K% Δ-0.017
Sample43.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.3----
Batters Faced164----
K%23.6%16.3% to 31.9%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.7%5.0% to 13.4%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%25.7%19.3% to 32.1%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.300.33 to 2.65+/- 1.16
xwOBA Against0.3110.278 to 0.369+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.5% to 15.5%+/- 5.5%
ERA3.972.32 to 7.71+/- 2.69
FIP3.922.69 to 6.97+/- 2.14
WHIP1.3051.023 to 1.777+/- 0.377
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

256 career BF

xwOBA0.351
K%20.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel13.0%
vs RHH

312 career BF

xwOBA0.313
K%20.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.6%