Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Soriano, George

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
16.3% to 31.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace3.32
ERA rolling p503.75
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.70 2.67 3.75 4.83 5.80
FIP
2.67 3.44 4.30 5.15 5.92
K%
17.2% 19.8% 22.8% 25.8% 28.4%
BB%
5.7% 7.2% 8.8% 10.5% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.6%
36
Barrel allowed9.9%
26
Fastball velo96.5
82
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
50
K%21.2%
41 -16 vs proj
Whiff%28.6%
84 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.351
17 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, George · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3762026-05-19: 0.3762026-05-21: 0.3692026-05-23: 0.3692026-05-24: 0.3572026-05-25: 0.3572026-05-26: 0.3572026-05-28: 0.3572026-05-29: 0.3572026-05-30: 0.3572026-05-31: 0.3512026-06-01: 0.351 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, George · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.2%Changeup: 24.8%Slider: 23.8%Sweeper: 12.3%Sinker: 12.0% MIX FF 27%CH 25%SL 24%ST 12%SI 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.4FFCH: HB -0.5, IVB 3.0CHSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.9SLST: HB -0.7, IVB 3.2STSI: HB 1.0, IVB 1.8SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.7% 125 96 limited sample
FB 26.6% 93 104 limited sample
CH 25.4% 89 106 limited sample
SI 12.3% 43 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.351 vs 0.313 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 30%, Sinker 20%, Slider 18%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.65
K% Δ-0.025
Sample25.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.0----
Batters Faced167----
K%23.6%16.3% to 31.9%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.7%5.0% to 13.4%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%25.7%19.3% to 32.1%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.300.33 to 2.65+/- 1.16
xwOBA Against0.3110.278 to 0.369+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.5% to 15.5%+/- 5.5%
ERA3.972.32 to 7.71+/- 2.69
FIP3.942.69 to 6.97+/- 2.14
WHIP1.3041.023 to 1.777+/- 0.377
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

256 career BF

xwOBA0.351
K%20.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel13.0%
vs RHH

312 career BF

xwOBA0.313
K%20.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.6%