Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / STL · 2026

Soriano, George

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.6% K%
Range
16.3% to 31.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace4.36
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.25 3.16 4.17 5.18 6.09
FIP
2.95 3.68 4.48 5.28 6.00
K%
19.5% 21.3% 23.4% 25.4% 27.2%
BB%
7.9% 9.0% 10.2% 11.4% 12.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
43
ERA4.36
42
BB%11.6%
21 -31 vs proj
K%23.3%
60
xwOBA allowed0.327
33 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
29
Fastball velo96.5
81
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
43
Whiff%27.9%
87
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+107
86
Fastball Stuff+100
32
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+99
25
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, George · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.327 2026-09-12: 0.3282026-09-13: 0.3292026-09-14: 0.3302026-09-18: 0.3302026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3302026-09-21: 0.3282026-09-22: 0.3282026-09-23: 0.3282026-09-24: 0.3272026-09-25: 0.3272026-09-26: 0.327 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, George · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 30.7%4-Seam Fastball: 29.8%Slider: 23.5%Sweeper: 9.0%Sinker: 6.9%Pitch Out: 0.1% CH31% · 90 mphprimary pitch CH 31%FF 30%SL 23%ST 9%SI 7%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, George · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Changeup: 31% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 90.0 mphCH90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.5 mphFF97 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.4 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.6 mphST86 mphSinker: 7% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.3 mphPO95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.1% 258 99 qualified
CH 29.9% 220 107 qualified
FB 27.6% 203 100 qualified
SI 7.3% 54 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.351 vs 0.313 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Changeup 30%, Sinker 20%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.39
K% Δ-0.004
Sample68.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.9----
Batters Faced162----
K%23.6%16.3% to 31.9%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.7%5.0% to 13.4%+/- 4.2%
Whiff%25.7%19.3% to 32.1%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.290.33 to 2.65+/- 1.16
xwOBA Against0.3110.278 to 0.369+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.5% to 15.5%+/- 5.5%
ERA3.972.32 to 7.71+/- 2.69
FIP3.922.69 to 6.97+/- 2.14
WHIP1.3031.023 to 1.777+/- 0.377
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

256 career BF

xwOBA0.351
K%20.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel13.0%
vs RHH

312 career BF

xwOBA0.313
K%20.5%
BB%7.4%
Barrel9.6%