Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Alvarado, Elvis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
19.2% to 34.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal4 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.31
ERA current pace4.00
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.02 2.79 3.65 4.50 5.28
FIP
3.30 3.81 4.37 4.93 5.43
K%
22.7% 24.7% 26.9% 29.2% 31.2%
BB%
8.3% 9.4% 10.7% 12.0% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
48
ERA4.00
52
BB%11.3%
23
K%27.0%
81
xwOBA allowed0.328
32
Barrel allowed12.9%
3 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo98.5
97
Hard-hit allowed47.1%
3
Whiff%27.5%
84
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+98
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 59%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, Elvis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3312026-09-18: 0.3312026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3302026-09-21: 0.3292026-09-22: 0.3292026-09-23: 0.3292026-09-24: 0.3252026-09-25: 0.3252026-09-26: 0.3282026-09-27: 0.328 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, Elvis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, Elvis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 58.5%Slider: 19.1%Sinker: 15.7%Split-Finger: 6.6% FF59% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 59%SL 19%SI 16%FS 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, Elvis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 59% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 98.7 mphFF99 mphSlider: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mphSinker: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.7 mphSI98 mphSplit-Finger: 7% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.5% 324 105 qualified
SI 18.8% 93 105 limited sample
SL 15.6% 77 98 limited sample
CH 0.2% 1 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 32%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.07
K% Δ+0.012
Sample53.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.6----
Batters Faced143----
K%25.8%19.2% to 34.1%+/- 7.4%
BB%10.3%7.2% to 15.1%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%27.2%23.0% to 35.5%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.140.51 to 2.14+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3220.256 to 0.337+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.5%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA3.931.43 to 6.04+/- 2.31
FIP4.002.85 to 5.86+/- 1.50
WHIP1.3591.030 to 1.715+/- 0.343
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

86 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%24.4%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

109 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%22.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.8%