Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Javier, Cristian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.7% K%
Range
17.2% to 27.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
4
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
22
Arsenal5 metrics
19
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace9.98
ERA rolling p506.00
Observed weight32%
ERA
4.93 5.44 6.00 6.57 7.07
FIP
3.97 4.40 4.89 5.37 5.81
K%
16.4% 18.1% 20.0% 22.0% 23.7%
BB%
9.4% 10.4% 11.6% 12.8% 13.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.81
3
ERA9.98
0
BB%15.8%
2 -34 vs proj
K%16.7%
13 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.395
2 -37 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
26
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
52
Whiff%26.7%
76 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Fastball Stuff+93
8
Mithrandir Stuff+93
10
Sinker Stuff+93
8
Slider Stuff+98
23
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Javier, Cristian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.395 2026-07-06: 0.3882026-07-07: 0.3882026-07-08: 0.3882026-07-09: 0.3882026-07-10: 0.3952026-07-11: 0.3952026-07-12: 0.3952026-07-13: 0.3952026-07-14: 0.3952026-07-15: 0.3952026-07-16: 0.3952026-07-17: 0.395 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Javier, Cristian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Javier, Cristian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 50.7%Sweeper: 25.1%Changeup: 16.0%Sinker: 5.1%Knuckle Curve: 3.0% FF51% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 51%ST 25%CH 16%SI 5%KC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Javier, Cristian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mphSinker: 5% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mphKnuckle Curve: 3% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 76.8 mphKC77 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.7% 84 93 limited sample
SL 25.0% 44 98 limited sample
CH 15.3% 27 102 limited sample
SI 6.8% 12 93 limited sample
CB 5.1% 9 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Sweeper 20%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+5.84
K% Δ-0.051
Sample24.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.4----
Batters Faced288----
K%21.7%17.2% to 27.0%+/- 4.9%
BB%9.7%7.7% to 12.8%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.1%19.6% to 28.3%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.370.84 to 2.00+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3250.284 to 0.352+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.143.34 to 6.20+/- 1.43
FIP4.383.33 to 5.78+/- 1.22
WHIP1.2641.073 to 1.620+/- 0.274
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1287 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.2%
BB%11.1%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1197 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.1%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.6%