Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Valdez, Framber

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
19.1% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal6 metrics
41
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace4.05
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight77%
ERA
3.00 3.46 3.96 4.47 4.93
FIP
3.30 3.54 3.81 4.08 4.32
K%
17.1% 17.9% 18.8% 19.7% 20.5%
BB%
7.3% 7.8% 8.4% 9.0% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA4.05
51
BB%8.6%
53
K%17.8%
19 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
39
Barrel allowed5.4%
82 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
40
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
21
Whiff%19.0%
20 -35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+102
49
Fastball Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+91
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Valdez, Framber · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-09-12: 0.3232026-09-13: 0.3232026-09-14: 0.3232026-09-18: 0.3222026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3222026-09-22: 0.3222026-09-23: 0.3222026-09-24: 0.3212026-09-25: 0.3212026-09-26: 0.321 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Valdez, Framber · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Valdez, Framber · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 44.0%Curveball: 29.7%Changeup: 18.2%Slider: 4.5%4-Seam Fastball: 3.6%Cutter: 0.0% SI44% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 44%CU 30%CH 18%SL 5%FF 4%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Valdez, Framber · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 44% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 30% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 78.3 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphSlider: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphCutter: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.2 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 44.0% 794 102 qualified
CB 30.2% 546 103 qualified
CH 18.2% 329 102 qualified
SL 4.0% 73 91 limited sample
FB 3.4% 61 98 limited sample
FC 0.1% 2 77 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.272 vs 0.301 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 46%, Curveball 33%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.24
K% Δ-0.041
Sample183.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.4----
Batters Faced606----
K%21.8%19.1% to 28.3%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.9%6.3% to 10.3%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%23.2%20.6% to 28.4%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.050.52 to 1.54+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3220.285 to 0.340+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.3% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.812.87 to 5.26+/- 1.20
FIP3.572.86 to 4.14+/- 0.64
WHIP1.3111.089 to 1.519+/- 0.215
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

985 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%23.5%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

3991 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%21.5%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.9%