Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Valdez, Framber

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.8% K%
Range
19.1% to 28.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
45
Arsenal6 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace4.10
ERA rolling p503.97
Observed weight68%
ERA
3.07 3.49 3.97 4.44 4.87
FIP
3.20 3.43 3.68 3.94 4.16
K%
17.6% 18.6% 19.7% 20.8% 21.8%
BB%
6.3% 6.9% 7.5% 8.2% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
52
ERA4.10
48
BB%7.4%
69
K%18.4%
22 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
47
Barrel allowed6.3%
73 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
29
Whiff%19.4%
20 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+103
67
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Slider Stuff+89
2
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Valdez, Framber · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.317 2026-07-06: 0.3242026-07-07: 0.3242026-07-08: 0.3242026-07-09: 0.3242026-07-10: 0.3242026-07-11: 0.3172026-07-12: 0.3172026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3172026-07-15: 0.3172026-07-16: 0.3172026-07-17: 0.317 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Valdez, Framber · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Valdez, Framber · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.9%Curveball: 27.7%Changeup: 19.9%Slider: 4.6%4-Seam Fastball: 2.0% SI46% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 46%CU 28%CH 20%SL 5%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Valdez, Framber · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 46% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 28% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 78.6 mphCU79 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mphSlider: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 46.4% 541 103 qualified
CB 29.0% 338 103 qualified
CH 19.4% 226 104 qualified
SL 4.1% 48 89 limited sample
FB 1.1% 13 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.272 vs 0.301 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 46%, Curveball 33%, Changeup 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.29
K% Δ-0.034
Sample118.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings147.6----
Batters Faced611----
K%21.8%19.1% to 28.3%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.9%6.3% to 10.3%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%23.2%20.6% to 28.4%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.050.52 to 1.54+/- 0.51
xwOBA Against0.3220.285 to 0.340+/- 0.027
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.3% to 10.1%+/- 2.4%
ERA3.812.87 to 5.26+/- 1.20
FIP3.572.86 to 4.14+/- 0.64
WHIP1.3111.089 to 1.519+/- 0.215
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

985 career BF

xwOBA0.272
K%23.5%
BB%7.1%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

3991 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%21.5%
BB%8.0%
Barrel6.9%