Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Clarke, Taylor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.2% K%
Range
15.6% to 29.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal6 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.15
ERA current pace2.59
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight41%
ERA
1.94 2.68 3.51 4.33 5.07
FIP
3.53 3.89 4.30 4.70 5.07
K%
15.1% 17.1% 19.3% 21.5% 23.5%
BB%
3.4% 4.5% 5.7% 6.9% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.86
97
ERA2.59
86
BB%4.8%
97
K%14.9%
6 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
38
Barrel allowed10.6%
14 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
72
Whiff%19.7%
23 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+109
91
Cutter Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+100
30
Slider Stuff+103
57
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Clarke, Taylor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.325 2026-07-06: 0.3312026-07-07: 0.3252026-07-08: 0.3252026-07-09: 0.3252026-07-10: 0.3332026-07-11: 0.3332026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3332026-07-14: 0.3252026-07-15: 0.3252026-07-16: 0.3252026-07-17: 0.325 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Clarke, Taylor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Clarke, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.4%Changeup: 24.9%Sinker: 20.5%Cutter: 20.0%4-Seam Fastball: 2.2% SL32% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 32%CH 25%SI 20%FC 20%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Clarke, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Slider: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.3 mphSL88 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.9 mphCH90 mphSinker: 20% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphCutter: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.1 mphFC94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 34.2% 139 103 limited sample
CH 22.9% 93 109 limited sample
FC 20.2% 82 103 limited sample
SI 19.7% 80 100 limited sample
FB 3.0% 12 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.286 vs 0.265 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 39%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.62
K% Δ-0.073
Sample43.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.1----
Batters Faced144----
K%22.2%15.6% to 29.0%+/- 6.7%
BB%6.2%3.3% to 10.6%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%22.9%18.4% to 27.6%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.230.83 to 2.45+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3140.261 to 0.361+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed8.2%3.9% to 12.8%+/- 4.4%
ERA4.212.23 to 6.59+/- 2.18
FIP4.033.05 to 5.19+/- 1.07
WHIP1.2110.850 to 1.517+/- 0.334
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

702 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%19.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

814 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%20.3%
BB%4.2%
Barrel8.2%