Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Brubaker, Jt

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.4% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal6 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace2.87
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.14 2.73 3.39 4.04 4.64
FIP
3.03 3.46 3.95 4.43 4.87
K%
15.3% 17.0% 18.9% 20.8% 22.5%
BB%
7.5% 8.4% 9.4% 10.5% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
76
ERA2.87
79
BB%11.2%
22 -29 vs proj
K%17.9%
18
xwOBA allowed0.328
36
Barrel allowed5.8%
78 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
72
Whiff%18.2%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Sinker Stuff+99
29
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Curveball Stuff+100
16
Fastball Stuff+84
1
Slider Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Brubaker, Jt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-05: 0.3292026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.328 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Brubaker, Jt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brubaker, Jt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 48.9%Slider: 25.9%Changeup: 11.9%Curveball: 7.5%4-Seam Fastball: 5.8% SI49% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 49%SL 26%CH 12%CU 7%FF 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Brubaker, Jt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.7 mphSI94 mphSlider: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.4% 281 99 qualified
SL 27.9% 159 100 limited sample
CH 10.9% 62 100 limited sample
CB 7.6% 43 100 limited sample
FB 4.2% 24 84 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 49%, Slider 24%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.12
K% Δ-0.015
Sample48.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings61.3----
Batters Faced256----
K%19.4%14.4% to 26.0%+/- 5.8%
BB%8.6%5.9% to 11.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%19.7%16.5% to 25.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.100.04 to 1.27+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3160.234 to 0.342+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.9% to 10.0%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.992.04 to 5.56+/- 1.76
FIP3.852.19 to 4.79+/- 1.30
WHIP1.2850.916 to 1.571+/- 0.328
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

780 career BF

xwOBA0.226
K%15.6%
BB%8.1%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

835 career BF

xwOBA0.211
K%17.2%
BB%6.1%
Barrel5.1%