Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 49%, Slider 24%, Changeup 15%.
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026
Brubaker, Jt
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SF
Archetype Volatile contact
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.81 |
| ERA current pace | 2.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.51 |
| Observed weight | 35% |
ERA
2.21
2.83
3.51
4.19
4.80
FIP
2.78
3.23
3.73
4.24
4.69
K%
15.1%
17.1%
19.2%
21.3%
23.3%
BB%
7.5%
8.6%
9.7%
10.9%
11.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.9%
11
-42 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
88
+41 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed31.9%
86
K%18.2%
21
Whiff%20.2%
25
xwOBA allowed0.340
26
-21 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+99
25
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
47%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 47.9% | 227 | 99 | qualified |
| SL | 28.3% | 134 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 11.4% | 54 | 100 | limited sample |
| CB | 8.2% | 39 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 4.2% | 20 | 78 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.03 |
| K% Δ | -0.012 |
| Sample | 31.7 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 61.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 257 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.4% | 14.4% to 26.0% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 5.9% to 11.3% | +/- 2.7% |
| Whiff% | 19.7% | 16.5% to 25.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.10 | 0.04 to 1.27 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.234 to 0.342 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 3.9% to 10.0% | +/- 3.1% |
| ERA | 3.99 | 2.04 to 5.56 | +/- 1.76 |
| FIP | 3.85 | 2.19 to 4.79 | +/- 1.30 |
| WHIP | 1.285 | 0.916 to 1.571 | +/- 0.328 |
vs LHH
780 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |
vs RHH
835 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |