Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Hartlieb, Geoff

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
10.9% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal5 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason7.53
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p506.32
Observed weight33%
ERA
3.20 4.68 6.32 7.96 9.44
FIP
3.26 3.63 4.06 4.48 4.86
K%
12.6% 15.3% 18.4% 21.5% 24.3%
BB%
6.8% 8.6% 10.6% 12.6% 14.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.56
16
ERA3.86
56
BB%11.0%
26
K%18.6%
27 -34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.305
61 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
72 +57 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed43.9%
15
Whiff%27.1%
82 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+100
36
Fastball Stuff+102
45
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+101
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

10 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Hartlieb, Geoff · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-14: 0.2982026-09-18: 0.2912026-09-19: 0.2912026-09-20: 0.2912026-09-21: 0.2922026-09-22: 0.2922026-09-23: 0.2922026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.305 2026-09-14 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Hartlieb, Geoff · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 45%45%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hartlieb, Geoff · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 34.2%4-Seam Fastball: 32.0%Cutter: 16.9%Sinker: 16.9% SL34% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 34%FF 32%FC 17%SI 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Hartlieb, Geoff · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 34% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.7 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphCutter: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 17% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 37.2% 100 101 limited sample
FB 30.1% 81 102 limited sample
SI 17.8% 48 102 limited sample
FC 14.9% 40 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.294 vs 0.260 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 61%, 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Sinker 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.05
K% Δ-0.048
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings28.5----
Batters Faced140----
K%23.5%10.9% to 27.7%+/- 8.4%
BB%10.7%5.1% to 15.9%+/- 5.4%
Whiff%23.1%13.5% to 27.4%+/- 7.0%
HR/91.240.00 to 2.12+/- 1.06
xwOBA Against0.3180.223 to 0.381+/- 0.079
Barrel% Allowed9.9%6.8% to 19.4%+/- 6.3%
ERA5.913.20 to 11.55+/- 4.18
FIP4.322.53 to 4.67+/- 1.07
WHIP1.4181.126 to 1.965+/- 0.419
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

208 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%13.2%
BB%12.6%
Barrel16.1%
vs RHH

263 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%14.3%
BB%9.1%
Barrel13.5%