Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Fairbanks, Pete

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
17.9% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal4 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.32
ERA current pace6.32
ERA rolling p504.65
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.34 3.96 4.65 5.34 5.96
FIP
2.97 3.43 3.94 4.46 4.92
K%
22.4% 24.5% 26.9% 29.3% 31.5%
BB%
7.5% 8.7% 9.9% 11.2% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
52
ERA6.32
8
BB%11.5%
22 -31 vs proj
K%30.9%
95 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
38 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.4%
5 -56 vs proj
Fastball velo97.2
89
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
20
Whiff%29.2%
91 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+110
95
Cutter Stuff+97
16
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Slider Stuff+102
48
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fairbanks, Pete · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.322 2026-09-12: 0.3182026-09-13: 0.3202026-09-14: 0.3202026-09-18: 0.3222026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3222026-09-22: 0.3222026-09-23: 0.3222026-09-24: 0.3222026-09-25: 0.3222026-09-26: 0.322 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fairbanks, Pete · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fairbanks, Pete · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.5%Slider: 26.4%Cutter: 23.3%Changeup: 1.8% FF48% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 26%FC 23%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fairbanks, Pete · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSlider: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.6 mphSL84 mphCutter: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.0 mphCH94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.3% 204 110 qualified
FC 27.0% 119 97 limited sample
SL 25.2% 111 102 limited sample
CH 1.6% 7 79 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 51%, Slider 40%, Changeup 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.00
K% Δ+0.056
Sample43.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.6----
Batters Faced155----
K%25.3%17.9% to 32.7%+/- 7.4%
BB%8.6%5.3% to 12.6%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%24.0%18.8% to 30.1%+/- 5.7%
HR/91.050.49 to 1.85+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3050.246 to 0.348+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed6.8%3.4% to 9.7%+/- 3.1%
ERA3.322.18 to 5.86+/- 1.84
FIP3.482.41 to 5.15+/- 1.37
WHIP1.1880.952 to 1.503+/- 0.276
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

557 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%23.9%
BB%8.6%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

677 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%23.2%
BB%6.9%
Barrel5.3%