Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Gonsolin, Tony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
17.3% to 29.6%
Live Δ
--
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
11
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal2 metrics
11
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.13
ERA current pace10.12
ERA rolling p504.49
Observed weight6%
ERA
2.87 3.63 4.49 5.34 6.11
FIP
3.44 4.05 4.72 5.39 6.00
K%
18.0% 20.8% 23.8% 26.9% 29.7%
BB%
7.1% 8.3% 9.7% 11.0% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+93
8
Mithrandir Stuff+96
14
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2025Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gonsolin, Tony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 37%37%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gonsolin, Tony · 2025 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.2%Split-Finger: 26.8%Curveball: 16.9%Slider: 16.1% FF40% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FS 27%CU 17%SL 16% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gonsolin, Tony · 2025 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.5 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.2 mphFS84 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 81.7 mphCU82 mphSlider: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.1 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 78.7% 37 93 limited sample
SL 17.0% 8 99 limited sample
CB 4.3% 2 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.320 vs 0.294 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Split-Finger 27%, Curveball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.2----
Batters Faced288----
K%21.2%17.3% to 29.6%+/- 6.1%
BB%9.2%6.8% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.2%20.0% to 30.1%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.320.87 to 2.43+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3270.288 to 0.370+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.7% to 12.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.112.95 to 6.39+/- 1.72
FIP4.413.36 to 6.08+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3411.091 to 1.699+/- 0.304
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

941 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%18.9%
BB%10.2%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

882 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%21.9%
BB%7.2%
Barrel9.8%