Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Phillips, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.3% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal5 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace3.45
ERA rolling p503.70
Observed weight70%
ERA
2.44 3.04 3.70 4.36 4.96
FIP
3.39 4.01 4.70 5.40 6.02
K%
16.5% 17.6% 18.7% 19.9% 20.9%
BB%
7.9% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA3.45
71
BB%10.4%
32 -45 vs proj
K%19.0%
29
xwOBA allowed0.332
29 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.9%
43
Fastball velo95.6
70
Hard-hit allowed42.3%
22
Whiff%25.2%
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+100
26
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+99
30
Slider Stuff+106
84
Fastball Stuff+101
38
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Phillips, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.332 2026-09-12: 0.3292026-09-13: 0.3322026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3322026-09-19: 0.3302026-09-20: 0.3302026-09-21: 0.3302026-09-22: 0.3302026-09-23: 0.3302026-09-24: 0.3302026-09-25: 0.3302026-09-26: 0.332 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Phillips, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 25.8%Sweeper: 23.7%Split-Finger: 23.0%Curveball: 17.6%4-Seam Fastball: 8.4%Slider: 1.5% SI26% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 26%ST 24%FS 23%CU 18%FF 8%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphSplit-Finger: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.9 mphFS87 mphCurveball: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 83.5 mphCU83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphSlider: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 34.3% 319 99 qualified
SL 31.5% 293 106 qualified
CB 24.1% 224 100 qualified
FB 10.2% 95 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 32%, Sweeper 23%, Curveball 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.10
K% Δ-0.004
Sample127.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.8----
Batters Faced283----
K%19.4%14.3% to 24.8%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.0%4.9% to 10.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%24.5%21.0% to 30.3%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.380.77 to 2.20+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3130.281 to 0.358+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.552.87 to 6.18+/- 1.66
FIP4.663.27 to 6.74+/- 1.73
WHIP1.3151.088 to 1.607+/- 0.259
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

249 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%15.6%
BB%7.6%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

267 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%16.9%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.6%