Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

Phillips, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.4% K%
Range
14.3% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace1.07
ERA rolling p502.92
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.74 2.30 2.92 3.55 4.11
FIP
2.91 3.50 4.16 4.81 5.40
K%
15.7% 17.4% 19.2% 21.0% 22.6%
BB%
6.7% 7.7% 8.7% 9.8% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.5%
20 -55 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.0%
72 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
77
Hard-hit allowed35.3%
74
K%20.7%
36
Whiff%29.3%
87 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.300
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Phillips, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3102026-05-19: 0.3042026-05-21: 0.3042026-05-23: 0.2962026-05-24: 0.2962026-05-25: 0.2902026-05-26: 0.2902026-05-28: 0.2902026-05-29: 0.2902026-05-30: 0.2902026-05-31: 0.2902026-06-01: 0.300 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Phillips, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.8%Split-Finger: 24.6%Sweeper: 24.0%Curveball: 17.2%4-Seam Fastball: 7.4% MIX SI 27%FS 25%ST 24%CU 17%FF 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB 0.1, IVB 1.7SIFS: HB -0.3, IVB 2.8FSST: HB -0.3, IVB 3.1STCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.3CUFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.2FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.8% 148 97 limited sample
SL 32.9% 136 106 limited sample
CB 22.3% 92 99 limited sample
FB 9.0% 37 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 32%, Sweeper 23%, Curveball 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-3.48
K% Δ+0.013
Sample39.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.1----
Batters Faced280----
K%19.4%14.3% to 24.8%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.0%4.9% to 10.3%+/- 2.7%
Whiff%24.5%21.0% to 30.3%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.380.77 to 2.20+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3130.281 to 0.358+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.3% to 11.0%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.552.87 to 6.18+/- 1.66
FIP4.663.27 to 6.74+/- 1.73
WHIP1.3161.088 to 1.607+/- 0.259
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

249 career BF

xwOBA0.306
K%15.6%
BB%7.6%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

267 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%16.9%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.6%