Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Holton, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
16.4% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal7 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace3.21
ERA rolling p503.43
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.47 2.93 3.43 3.94 4.40
FIP
3.54 3.79 4.06 4.34 4.59
K%
16.9% 18.4% 20.1% 21.8% 23.3%
BB%
4.2% 4.9% 5.7% 6.5% 7.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
36
ERA3.21
71
BB%5.4%
93
K%19.5%
29
xwOBA allowed0.302
64
Barrel allowed5.9%
78 +27 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
7
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
40
Whiff%22.9%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Changeup Stuff+102
45
Curveball Stuff+97
1
Cutter Stuff+105
81
Fastball Stuff+97
17
Sinker Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+98
27
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holton, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-07-06: 0.3022026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3022026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3022026-07-15: 0.3022026-07-16: 0.3022026-07-17: 0.302 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holton, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 31.3%Sinker: 18.0%Sweeper: 16.7%Changeup: 16.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7%Curveball: 5.1% FC31% · 87 mphprimary pitch FC 31%SI 18%ST 17%CH 16%FF 13%CU 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 31% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.5 mphFC87 mphSinker: 18% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.9 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.8 mphST80 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.5 mphFF91 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 32.0% 178 105 limited sample
SI 18.3% 102 105 limited sample
SL 17.1% 95 98 limited sample
CH 14.9% 83 102 limited sample
FB 12.9% 72 97 limited sample
CB 4.8% 27 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.253 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 30%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.45
K% Δ-0.007
Sample42.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.2----
Batters Faced282----
K%20.2%16.4% to 26.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 8.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.5%18.9% to 27.5%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.371.01 to 2.18+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3150.270 to 0.329+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.2% to 10.3%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.662.28 to 4.98+/- 1.35
FIP4.183.37 to 4.85+/- 0.74
WHIP1.1710.888 to 1.463+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

473 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%21.3%
BB%4.3%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

673 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%19.1%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.7%