Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Holton, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.2% K%
Range
16.4% to 26.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
64
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal7 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace2.78
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.18 2.64 3.14 3.65 4.10
FIP
3.54 3.79 4.07 4.35 4.60
K%
16.5% 17.8% 19.2% 20.6% 21.9%
BB%
4.7% 5.3% 6.0% 6.8% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA2.78
86
BB%6.1%
88
K%18.1%
22
xwOBA allowed0.300
68 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
83 +37 vs proj
Fastball velo91.2
8
Hard-hit allowed38.8%
47
Whiff%21.6%
43
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+104
77
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Changeup Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+96
1
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Holton, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.300 2026-09-12: 0.2962026-09-13: 0.2962026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.3012026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3012026-09-25: 0.3012026-09-26: 0.300 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Holton, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 31.6%Sinker: 20.3%Changeup: 16.7%Sweeper: 15.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.7%Curveball: 3.5% FC32% · 88 mphprimary pitch FC 32%SI 20%CH 17%ST 15%FF 13%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Holton, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mphSinker: 20% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.0 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.4 mphCH83 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.9 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.5 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 31.7% 274 104 qualified
SI 20.9% 181 101 limited sample
SL 16.0% 138 95 limited sample
CH 15.4% 133 102 limited sample
FB 12.5% 108 98 limited sample
CB 3.5% 30 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.253 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 30%, Sinker 23%, Sweeper 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.88
K% Δ-0.021
Sample72.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings73.2----
Batters Faced286----
K%20.2%16.4% to 26.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%6.1%3.9% to 8.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.5%18.9% to 27.5%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.371.01 to 2.18+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3150.270 to 0.329+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed7.6%5.2% to 10.3%+/- 2.5%
ERA3.662.28 to 4.98+/- 1.35
FIP4.183.37 to 4.85+/- 0.74
WHIP1.1720.888 to 1.463+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

473 career BF

xwOBA0.253
K%21.3%
BB%4.3%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHH

673 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%19.1%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.7%