Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Singer, Brady

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
21.6% K%
Range
17.7% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
20
Arsenal5 metrics
24
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace5.67
ERA rolling p505.28
Observed weight76%
ERA
4.15 4.68 5.28 5.88 6.41
FIP
4.10 4.57 5.09 5.60 6.07
K%
16.7% 17.5% 18.4% 19.4% 20.2%
BB%
7.1% 7.6% 8.2% 8.8% 9.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.61
11
ERA5.67
14
BB%8.4%
56
K%17.4%
17 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.368
7 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
11 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
8
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
14
Whiff%22.1%
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Sinker Stuff+101
40
Slider Stuff+99
26
Cutter Stuff+94
4
Fastball Stuff+91
5
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Singer, Brady · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.368 2026-09-12: 0.3482026-09-13: 0.3532026-09-14: 0.3532026-09-18: 0.3612026-09-19: 0.3612026-09-20: 0.3612026-09-21: 0.3612026-09-22: 0.3612026-09-23: 0.3612026-09-24: 0.3612026-09-25: 0.3612026-09-26: 0.368 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Singer, Brady · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Singer, Brady · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 50.6%Slider: 27.8%Sweeper: 13.0%Cutter: 6.7%4-Seam Fastball: 2.0% SI51% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 51%SL 28%ST 13%FC 7%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Singer, Brady · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 51% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.1 mphSI91 mphSlider: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.6 mphSL83 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.0 mphST82 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 87.2 mphFC87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 90.7 mphFF91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 49.3% 781 101 qualified
SL 43.0% 681 99 qualified
FC 5.7% 91 94 limited sample
FB 2.0% 31 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.334 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 41%, Slider 28%, Sweeper 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.49
K% Δ-0.042
Sample161.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.7----
Batters Faced621----
K%21.6%17.7% to 27.2%+/- 4.8%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.1%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.7%19.1% to 26.3%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.560.84 to 2.05+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3310.287 to 0.360+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.9% to 12.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.183.07 to 5.92+/- 1.42
FIP4.353.02 to 5.48+/- 1.23
WHIP1.3031.101 to 1.557+/- 0.228
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2095 career BF

xwOBA0.334
K%20.4%
BB%8.6%
Barrel10.8%
vs RHH

1749 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%20.3%
BB%6.3%
Barrel6.6%