Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Pearson, Nate

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.4% K%
Range
15.3% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.23
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.97 3.03 4.20 5.38 6.43
FIP
3.00 3.43 3.91 4.39 4.82
K%
17.5% 19.6% 22.0% 24.4% 26.5%
BB%
8.2% 9.4% 10.8% 12.1% 13.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
37
ERA4.17
47
BB%12.6%
14 -35 vs proj
K%20.7%
40 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
39
Barrel allowed7.3%
53 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
92
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
67
Whiff%20.6%
32 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Sinker Stuff+99
26
Slider Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pearson, Nate · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-09-13: 0.3042026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3042026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.3212026-09-27: 0.321 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pearson, Nate · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pearson, Nate · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.3%Slider: 28.3%Sinker: 13.1%Curveball: 12.1%Changeup: 2.2% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 28%SI 13%CU 12%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pearson, Nate · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSlider: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.4 mphSL89 mphSinker: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.7% 239 100 qualified
SL 24.0% 123 105 limited sample
CB 13.7% 70 101 limited sample
SI 12.7% 65 99 limited sample
CH 2.9% 15 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 40%, Curveball 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ-0.027
Sample44.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.5----
Batters Faced155----
K%23.4%15.3% to 30.6%+/- 7.7%
BB%9.0%5.4% to 13.3%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%24.9%18.4% to 32.0%+/- 6.8%
HR/91.230.73 to 2.47+/- 0.87
xwOBA Against0.3250.257 to 0.381+/- 0.062
Barrel% Allowed8.5%4.3% to 12.7%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.711.50 to 7.79+/- 3.14
FIP4.332.79 to 5.35+/- 1.28
WHIP1.4191.074 to 1.879+/- 0.402
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

333 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.9%
BB%10.2%
Barrel9.0%
vs RHH

424 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%19.7%
BB%7.4%
Barrel8.2%