Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BOS · 2026

Sandoval, Patrick

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
20.9% K%
Range
15.7% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team BOS Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace4.99
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.41 3.93 4.52 5.10 5.63
FIP
2.92 3.37 3.88 4.39 4.85
K%
19.1% 20.4% 21.8% 23.2% 24.4%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
6
ERA4.99
27
BB%10.4%
32
K%22.7%
56
xwOBA allowed0.339
23
Barrel allowed6.6%
65
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
69
Whiff%22.1%
47
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+101
38
Changeup Stuff+103
64
Curveball Stuff+102
45
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Sinker Stuff+91
5
Slider Stuff+104
69
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sandoval, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-09-12: 0.3492026-09-13: 0.3492026-09-14: 0.3492026-09-18: 0.3502026-09-19: 0.3502026-09-20: 0.3502026-09-21: 0.3422026-09-22: 0.3422026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.339 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sandoval, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sandoval, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 26.0%4-Seam Fastball: 24.8%Slider: 21.7%Sinker: 18.0%Sweeper: 5.3%Curveball: 4.2% CH26% · 83 mphprimary pitch CH 26%FF 25%SL 22%SI 18%ST 5%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sandoval, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Changeup: 26% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 83.3 mphCH83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphSinker: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.9 mphSI94 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 80.6 mphST81 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 75.7 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 28.3% 178 103 limited sample
SL 24.8% 156 104 limited sample
FB 24.4% 153 104 limited sample
SI 17.2% 108 91 limited sample
CB 5.3% 33 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.264 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.08
K% Δ+0.018
Sample64.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.1----
Batters Faced619----
K%20.9%15.7% to 24.8%+/- 4.5%
BB%9.2%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.4%20.1% to 28.1%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.270.54 to 1.71+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3300.273 to 0.353+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.2% to 10.0%+/- 2.9%
ERA3.912.86 to 5.98+/- 1.56
FIP4.092.98 to 5.69+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3721.131 to 1.724+/- 0.297
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

552 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%18.9%
BB%8.8%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

1884 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%17.1%
BB%9.5%
Barrel6.3%