Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lynch IV, Daniel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
14.3% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
79
Arsenal6 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace1.93
ERA rolling p503.17
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.01 2.56 3.17 3.77 4.32
FIP
2.82 3.25 3.73 4.21 4.65
K%
19.0% 20.8% 22.8% 24.8% 26.6%
BB%
6.1% 7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 10.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.94
94
ERA1.93
93
BB%8.8%
49
K%28.0%
86 +57 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.269
86 +45 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.2%
80 +42 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
53
Hard-hit allowed35.1%
75
Whiff%31.0%
93 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-14
Changeup Stuff+107
81
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+102
45
Slider Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lynch IV, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.269 2026-06-03: 0.2672026-06-04: 0.2672026-06-05: 0.2662026-06-06: 0.2662026-06-07: 0.2662026-06-08: 0.2602026-06-09: 0.2602026-06-10: 0.2602026-06-11: 0.2672026-06-12: 0.2692026-06-13: 0.2692026-06-14: 0.269 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lynch IV, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.5%Changeup: 24.3%Slider: 23.9%4-Seam Fastball: 18.1%Knuckle Curve: 7.2% SI27% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 27%CH 24%SL 24%FF 18%KC 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 27% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 7% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.7 mphKC82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 27.8% 101 102 limited sample
SL 24.2% 88 103 limited sample
CH 23.7% 86 107 limited sample
FB 17.1% 62 98 limited sample
CB 7.2% 26 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.276 vs 0.310 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 29%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.66
K% Δ+0.084
Sample31.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.2----
Batters Faced288----
K%19.6%14.3% to 24.6%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.3%5.8% to 11.6%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.3%20.0% to 28.7%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.550.97 to 2.22+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3230.286 to 0.361+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.6% to 12.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.592.28 to 5.40+/- 1.56
FIP4.753.54 to 6.00+/- 1.23
WHIP1.3871.104 to 1.681+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

361 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%18.5%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1371 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%16.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel9.4%