Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lynch IV, Daniel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.6% K%
Range
14.3% to 24.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace4.13
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.88 3.41 4.00 4.59 5.12
FIP
3.38 3.80 4.27 4.74 5.16
K%
15.9% 17.1% 18.5% 19.9% 21.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.2% 8.1% 9.0% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
82
ERA4.13
48
BB%8.1%
60
K%17.4%
17 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
33
Barrel allowed6.7%
63 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed38.1%
53
Whiff%21.5%
41 -20 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+101
38
Changeup Stuff+105
74
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Fastball Stuff+95
12
Slider Stuff+103
64
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lynch IV, Daniel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.327 2026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3092026-09-19: 0.3092026-09-20: 0.3092026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3272026-09-24: 0.3272026-09-25: 0.3272026-09-26: 0.3272026-09-27: 0.327 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lynch IV, Daniel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.8%Changeup: 24.7%Slider: 19.3%4-Seam Fastball: 16.0%Knuckle Curve: 9.2% SI31% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 31%CH 25%SL 19%FF 16%KC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lynch IV, Daniel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 31% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphSlider: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.7 mphKC82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.9% 243 101 qualified
CH 24.4% 192 105 limited sample
SL 18.8% 148 103 limited sample
FB 15.9% 125 95 limited sample
CB 9.9% 78 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.276 vs 0.310 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 29%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.46
K% Δ-0.022
Sample83.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.7----
Batters Faced290----
K%19.6%14.3% to 24.6%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.3%5.8% to 11.6%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%24.3%20.0% to 28.7%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.550.97 to 2.22+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3230.286 to 0.361+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.6% to 12.1%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.592.28 to 5.40+/- 1.56
FIP4.753.54 to 6.00+/- 1.23
WHIP1.3871.104 to 1.681+/- 0.288
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

361 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%18.5%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

1371 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%16.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel9.4%