Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Harris, Hogan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.33
ERA rolling p503.58
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.44 2.98 3.58 4.19 4.73
FIP
3.62 3.93 4.28 4.62 4.93
K%
22.6% 24.0% 25.5% 27.1% 28.4%
BB%
9.9% 10.9% 11.9% 13.0% 14.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA3.33
75
BB%13.6%
8 -24 vs proj
K%27.8%
85 +34 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.298
70 +39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.3%
53
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed34.1%
81
Whiff%22.6%
50 +15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Changeup Stuff+105
71
Cutter Stuff+91
2
Slider Stuff+96
13
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 62%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Harris, Hogan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.298 2026-09-13: 0.2982026-09-14: 0.3022026-09-18: 0.2992026-09-19: 0.2992026-09-20: 0.2992026-09-21: 0.2992026-09-22: 0.2992026-09-23: 0.2982026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.2982026-09-27: 0.298 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Harris, Hogan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harris, Hogan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 61.9%Curveball: 26.5%Slider: 6.2%Changeup: 3.9%Cutter: 1.3%Slurve: 0.3% FF62% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 62%CU 26%SL 6%CH 4%FC 1%SV 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harris, Hogan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 62% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 74.0 mphCU74 mphSlider: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 83.9 mphCH84 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.7 mphFC92 mphSlurve: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 80.4 mphSV80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 61.7% 561 105 qualified
CB 25.7% 234 102 qualified
SL 7.5% 68 96 limited sample
CH 3.6% 33 105 limited sample
FC 1.4% 13 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Curveball 23%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.70
K% Δ+0.054
Sample71.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.5----
Batters Faced298----
K%22.3%16.9% to 27.6%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.3%7.3% to 14.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%20.9%17.4% to 25.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.180.74 to 1.91+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3280.288 to 0.363+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.5% to 10.5%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.032.40 to 5.61+/- 1.61
FIP4.163.22 to 5.06+/- 0.92
WHIP1.3561.127 to 1.710+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

243 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%20.6%
BB%12.2%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

644 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%19.5%
BB%10.9%
Barrel7.3%