Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Harris, Hogan

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.3% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace2.84
ERA rolling p503.53
Observed weight36%
ERA
2.35 2.91 3.53 4.15 4.71
FIP
3.87 4.19 4.54 4.90 5.22
K%
18.9% 20.7% 22.7% 24.7% 26.5%
BB%
9.8% 11.0% 12.4% 13.8% 15.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%17.0%
2 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.1%
82 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
64
Hard-hit allowed26.6%
98
K%23.0%
54
Whiff%23.7%
56 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.298
65 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+102
56
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 58%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Harris, Hogan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3012026-05-19: 0.3012026-05-21: 0.3092026-05-23: 0.3082026-05-24: 0.3082026-05-25: 0.3122026-05-26: 0.3122026-05-28: 0.3052026-05-29: 0.3052026-05-30: 0.3052026-05-31: 0.2992026-06-01: 0.298 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Harris, Hogan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 38%38%Hard hit allowed: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harris, Hogan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 58.1%Curveball: 23.1%Slider: 12.0%Changeup: 5.0%Cutter: 1.8% MIX FF 58%CU 23%SL 12%CH 5%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Harris, Hogan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.0FFCU: HB 0.1, IVB 5.6CUSL: HB -0.3, IVB 2.0SLCH: HB -1.4, IVB 2.1CHFC: HB -0.1, IVB 1.5FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 57.2% 278 106 qualified
CB 23.0% 112 101 limited sample
SL 12.8% 62 93 limited sample
CH 5.1% 25 103 limited sample
FC 1.9% 9 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Curveball 23%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.19
K% Δ+0.007
Sample29.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.8----
Batters Faced294----
K%22.3%16.9% to 27.6%+/- 5.3%
BB%10.3%7.3% to 14.0%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%20.9%17.4% to 25.4%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.180.74 to 1.91+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3280.288 to 0.363+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.5% to 10.5%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.032.40 to 5.61+/- 1.61
FIP4.153.22 to 5.06+/- 0.92
WHIP1.3561.127 to 1.710+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

243 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%20.6%
BB%12.2%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

644 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%19.5%
BB%10.9%
Barrel7.3%