Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Irvin, Jake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.1% K%
Range
14.7% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal7 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.65
ERA current pace5.23
ERA rolling p504.94
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.74 4.31 4.94 5.58 6.15
FIP
3.52 3.84 4.20 4.56 4.88
K%
19.1% 20.5% 22.0% 23.5% 24.9%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
49
ERA5.23
20
BB%9.3%
41 -24 vs proj
K%25.5%
71 +51 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.349
16
Barrel allowed11.0%
12 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
21
Hard-hit allowed45.2%
12
Whiff%23.0%
50 +35 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+103
64
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Sinker Stuff+106
84
Changeup Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Slider Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Irvin, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.349 2026-07-07: 0.3492026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3492026-07-10: 0.3492026-07-11: 0.3492026-07-12: 0.3492026-07-13: 0.3492026-07-14: 0.3492026-07-15: 0.3492026-07-16: 0.3492026-07-17: 0.3492026-07-18: 0.349 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Irvin, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Curveball: 24.7%Sinker: 23.5%Cutter: 10.8%Sweeper: 7.9%Changeup: 4.9% FF28% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 28%CU 25%SI 24%FC 11%ST 8%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 77.4 mphCU77 mphSinker: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mphCutter: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 81.2 mphST81 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.5% 261 100 qualified
CB 25.6% 243 103 qualified
SI 24.0% 228 106 qualified
FC 10.6% 101 106 limited sample
SL 7.8% 74 101 limited sample
CH 4.4% 42 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.339 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Curveball 29%, Sinker 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.08
K% Δ+0.074
Sample56.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.7----
Batters Faced627----
K%18.1%14.7% to 24.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.6%5.4% to 9.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%18.7%15.1% to 23.2%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.640.79 to 2.38+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3350.289 to 0.361+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.8% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA5.313.26 to 6.66+/- 1.70
FIP4.793.63 to 5.55+/- 0.96
WHIP1.3411.124 to 1.627+/- 0.252
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1162 career BF

xwOBA0.339
K%16.0%
BB%7.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

977 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%18.6%
BB%6.2%
Barrel8.0%