Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Irvin, Jake

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.1% K%
Range
14.7% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal7 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.65
ERA current pace5.40
ERA rolling p505.15
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.88 4.48 5.15 5.82 6.42
FIP
4.02 4.36 4.74 5.12 5.46
K%
19.6% 20.7% 21.8% 23.0% 24.1%
BB%
7.7% 8.4% 9.1% 9.8% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA5.40
18
BB%10.0%
37 -32 vs proj
K%23.5%
61 +39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.351
15
Barrel allowed10.4%
11 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
24
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
11
Whiff%21.9%
45 +27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+104
77
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+107
86
Changeup Stuff+101
40
Cutter Stuff+105
82
Slider Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Irvin, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.351 2026-09-13: 0.3512026-09-14: 0.3522026-09-18: 0.3522026-09-19: 0.3522026-09-20: 0.3522026-09-21: 0.3462026-09-22: 0.3462026-09-23: 0.3462026-09-24: 0.3462026-09-25: 0.3462026-09-26: 0.3462026-09-27: 0.351 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Irvin, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.1%Curveball: 22.3%Sinker: 18.8%Cutter: 10.1%Sweeper: 8.7%Changeup: 7.9% FF32% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 32%CU 22%SI 19%FC 10%ST 9%CH 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Irvin, Jake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 77.7 mphCU78 mphSinker: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.1 mphSI92 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 81.9 mphST82 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.1% 571 100 qualified
CB 22.9% 407 104 qualified
SI 19.1% 339 107 qualified
FC 9.9% 176 105 limited sample
SL 8.3% 148 101 limited sample
CH 7.7% 136 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.339 vs 0.295 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Curveball 29%, Sinker 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.09
K% Δ+0.054
Sample110.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.4----
Batters Faced621----
K%18.1%14.7% to 24.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%7.6%5.4% to 9.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%18.7%15.1% to 23.3%+/- 4.1%
HR/91.640.79 to 2.38+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3350.289 to 0.361+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.8%5.8% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA5.313.26 to 6.66+/- 1.70
FIP4.793.63 to 5.55+/- 0.96
WHIP1.3411.124 to 1.627+/- 0.252
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1162 career BF

xwOBA0.339
K%16.0%
BB%7.7%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

977 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%18.6%
BB%6.2%
Barrel8.0%