Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Kolek, Stephen

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.1% K%
Range
14.0% to 23.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace2.77
ERA rolling p503.63
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.47 3.02 3.63 4.24 4.79
FIP
3.42 3.75 4.12 4.49 4.82
K%
13.4% 15.0% 16.7% 18.5% 20.0%
BB%
4.4% 5.1% 6.0% 6.8% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%4.9%
94 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.3%
69
Fastball velo93.8
41
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
73
K%15.6%
11
Whiff%18.2%
14
xwOBA allowed0.287
74 +53 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

8 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kolek, Stephen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-24: 0.2832026-05-25: 0.2832026-05-26: 0.2832026-05-28: 0.2832026-05-29: 0.2832026-05-30: 0.2832026-05-31: 0.2872026-06-01: 0.287 2026-05-24 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kolek, Stephen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kolek, Stephen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.9%Sinker: 21.6%Changeup: 14.8%Cutter: 13.5%Slider: 10.5%Sweeper: 9.6% MIX FF 30%SI 22%CH 15%FC 14%SL 10%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kolek, Stephen · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.5FFSI: HB 0.3, IVB 2.3SICH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.8CHFC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.3FCSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.3SLST: HB -0.0, IVB 4.0ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.6% 105 105 limited sample
SI 22.1% 81 107 limited sample
SL 19.6% 72 98 limited sample
CH 15.8% 58 104 limited sample
FC 13.9% 51 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Sinker 25%, Slider 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.67
K% Δ-0.016
Sample30.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.1----
Batters Faced587----
K%17.1%14.0% to 23.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%6.7%5.0% to 9.1%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%16.7%14.4% to 21.6%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.180.41 to 1.76+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3470.287 to 0.358+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.0%4.0% to 9.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.442.84 to 5.96+/- 1.56
FIP4.172.93 to 4.81+/- 0.94
WHIP1.3211.109 to 1.590+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

367 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%15.1%
BB%7.3%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHH

352 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%15.5%
BB%4.9%
Barrel4.9%